Posts Tagged ‘value bet’

Another good value bet wins €3

August 23rd, 2009

Today has been a good day for me. I’m sure there’s no better feeling for any gambler knowing you’ve secured a win. I got that feeling after 9 minutes of the Wolfsburg – Hamburg game today.

wolfsburg_hamburg_2nil_after nine_minutes

Hamburg had to be backed at 4.3! They finished 5th in the Bundesliga last year, only 8 points behind the champions Wolfsburg and have won their last two games 4-1 and 5-1. This bet offered great value. I had €1.72 on Hamburg at 4.3 and layed them off at even money for €2.68 leaving me a guaranteed profit of €0.96 for a Wolfsburg win or the draw, or €3 if Hamburg go on to win.


Again, I’ve cut in to my profits but I’m playing safe and I’ve picked up another win that takes me just below or just over the €40 mark. I prepared this post as soon as Hamburg went 2-0 but Wolfburg got back to 2-2 in the game, so it was a good lay of Hamburg. Off course I could have layed Hamburg at 1.23 at one stage and guaranteed a bigger profit but I made rules for myself and I stick to them. There’s no point saying what if, I guaranteed myself another €0.96 profit and Hamburg have just gone in to the lead again so hopefully it’s €3 profit on this one. Either way, I’m happy! I’m still the big underdog here and expect Sean to come bouncing back with a big bet later.

* Update – Hamburg scored on 90 minutes, 4-2 Hamburg :)

Week 2 – Enda’s first bet

August 3rd, 2009

I had a sneaky bet this morning. Another small risk big pay off bet off 15 cents which is only 0.75% of my starting bankroll. At odds of 49/1, I get payed €7.35 if this one comes in. This would be a great ROI for a very small risk. Eventually I’ll get payed on one of these, and it’ll be worth it if it happens sooner rather than later. Saying something like “eventually I’ll get payed on one of these” may sound like mug punter strategy and maybe it is, but I’ve studied previous form in this event and I think 49/1 is a value bet. I’ll be laying the bet off at just over 2/1 so if my runner shows well in the event so that I green out even if my selection looses.


I wont be revealing this bet (I’ve removed my selection from screenshot above) until after the result of this event comes in. When the event finishes, I’ll give a run down on why I thought it was a value bet! For now I’ll walk away and leave it, I thought it was good value and I won’t give it a second thought until the bet is in play.

Sean is still ahead but he had to work hard yesterday to get his money back after an initial loss. Looking at his bets, he could have got burned quite badly yesterday. It was interesting to see how we both approached the Arsenal v Rangers differently yesterday, I walked away from it when I was beat and Sean fought back for his money. Sean was going to get payed big with his initial lay of Arsenal of €5 and I was going to get payed big for a small bet on Rangers if they came through. Although Sean has the draw to cover himself too I wouldn’t have layed Arsenal. If I’m honest I thought Arsenal would win the game (about 3 outta 4 times), but I thought Rangers were decent value at 8/1, especially after both teams played the previous day. However, after some hard work, Sean got payed, I didn’t! His tactic worked, mine didn’t!

You’ll see we’ve added a Poll over on the right to see who you think will come out top this month? Sean is leading 3-0 (obviously he’s voting for himself every time he has a spare second :) ). Feel free to drop myself or Sean a vote (no registration needed) as we welcome all feedback and comments on this site.