Posts Tagged ‘tactics’

closing in on my target

December 11th, 2009

At the start of the month i set myself a target of changing €20 on betfair in to €86.44.

The biggest overall winning balance so far on lucky.ie has been €74.16, so if i can hit my target, i’ll have well and truely smashed Enda’s record. So far, my plan is working beautifully.

It requires nerves of steel but i’ve always been happy to take on big bets. In the last few days, the riskiest odds i’ve taken on have been 1.31 and i stuck €30 on that. It was on over 2.5 goals in the Barcelona -v- Dinamo Kiev match. I placed that bet when the match was 1-1 in the first half.

Easy money i thought because Kiev had to win by 3 goals to qualify for the champions league knock out stages and Barcelona are just Barcelona – they can’t play any other way than all out attack. But the game was really poor. Kiev were happy with a draw and Barcelona were happy just to knock it about and treat the match as a training session. So i was left sweating on this right up until the last 5 minutes until Messi scored a free kick.

That won me €9.30 but more importantly saved me from losing €30 :smile: Since then, i’ve been placing sensible bets at lower odds and they’re all coming in. Snooker mainly. One of these days i’ll get burned on snooker because the BBC keep changing schedules and cutting off midway through frames which means i lose my ability to predict how shots will go and am just left to make decisions based purely on the fluctuating odds.

Anyway, my new betfair balance is €64.95.

masterclass betting

Add my paddypower balance of €5.12 to that and it means i now have an overall balance of €70.07.

betting tactics

So i’m on course to hit my target of €86.44 on betfair and if all goes to plan i could well end the month with a balance of €90+. The stakes are very high now though. I’m reluctant to bet 100% of my balance on any one event, but i have to if i’m to hit my target whilst minimising the risk of losing. I look like a genius if i pull it off and everything goes to plan. If i bet my entire balance on a 1.01 shot that loses, then i look like a complete idiot :mrgreen:

Still, fortune favours the brave and i’m determined to crush Enda this month and lay down a marker for 2010.

August 09 – Week 2 Review

August 9th, 2009

Earlier this week, Sean asked me in the comments section of this post did I think United were worth a bet of odds of 2.98 in the 2009 Community shield:

sean says:
August 6, 2009 at 1:20 am
what about the community shield? fancy utd in normal time? 2.98 the odds right now…

here was my answer (with a few typos :) ):

enda says:
August 6, 2009 at 10:28 am
@sean: honestly, i’d say no! but it’s worth a go with those odds. Chelsea are strong and will be and Ancelotti will be looking to make a big first impression, what about 0-0 and penalties? Wasn’t overly impressed with United last night, solid enough and got the result but we were saying we might need a bit more in the middle for Europe.

Apart from the scoreline I called it exactly right! United’s odds drifted out to 3.25 just before the match today. I was going to leave betting but I did fancy Chelsea so I went for it with a bet of €2.36 at odds of 2.58. I fancied Chelsea to be ahead in this match in the dying moments but you never know with United and late goals. As soon as I backed Chelsea I layed them at 1.1 for €7.

chelsea_united_community_shield_2009_betting

This meant I was loosing 70 cents if Chelsea went ahead and stayed ahead until the end. This was great discipline plus a good bit of luck. I didn’t watch the game as I went to bed with a sore head and how glad am I that I made this decision after Wayne Rooney had an injury time equaliser!

chelsea_united_community_shield_2009

It worked out perfectly! I made my decision, went off to sleep as I had a sore head and there was no messing about thinking about when to lay Chelsea. I figured at 1.1 my lay would have been picked up in the last 2 or 3 minutes. Loosing 70 cents was a fair chunk of my profits on this bet but if I’d have been greedy then I’d have got nothing! So that rockets me over the €30 mark and into the lead for the first time (and my sore head is gone too :) ). Sean may get some profit in this match too as he voted for a draw in the poll that he set up for this match. But with his past record of trying to trade out of bets he could have got burned with that late goal! He may also have some profit in the golf later today so my lead may be short lived!

This has been an excellent week for me, I’m delighted too that I got this result on the Community Shield, but even if I didn’t my balance would have been €24 so I’d have been happy.

Here’s some of my other bets this week:
First bet of the week
First sports betting win
Poker profit and loss
Wining Tennis Bet
and My big wins

Here’s my stats:
Opening Balance: €19.85
Bet this week: €18.50
Current Balance: €30.77
Profit/Loss (week): €10.92 profit
Profit/Loss (month): €10.77 profit

I think Sean was banking on calling this competition over if he passed the €30 mark this weekend, he’s been on at me to bet more but I was waiting for the right bets. Hopefully I’ve proved this week that it isn’t going to be as easy as he thought to pull away from me (that’s assuming I’m not in the lead this evening). Next week might be a quiet enough week for me as I’m heading off to Liverpool. I’ll definitely be back with some bets before the Premier League kicks off and should have some videos or pics from Old Trafford to share after my visit there for the opening game of the season against Birmingham!

Week 2 – Enda’s first bet

August 3rd, 2009

I had a sneaky bet this morning. Another small risk big pay off bet off 15 cents which is only 0.75% of my starting bankroll. At odds of 49/1, I get payed €7.35 if this one comes in. This would be a great ROI for a very small risk. Eventually I’ll get payed on one of these, and it’ll be worth it if it happens sooner rather than later. Saying something like “eventually I’ll get payed on one of these” may sound like mug punter strategy and maybe it is, but I’ve studied previous form in this event and I think 49/1 is a value bet. I’ll be laying the bet off at just over 2/1 so if my runner shows well in the event so that I green out even if my selection looses.

secret_bet_blank

I wont be revealing this bet (I’ve removed my selection from screenshot above) until after the result of this event comes in. When the event finishes, I’ll give a run down on why I thought it was a value bet! For now I’ll walk away and leave it, I thought it was good value and I won’t give it a second thought until the bet is in play.

Sean is still ahead but he had to work hard yesterday to get his money back after an initial loss. Looking at his bets, he could have got burned quite badly yesterday. It was interesting to see how we both approached the Arsenal v Rangers differently yesterday, I walked away from it when I was beat and Sean fought back for his money. Sean was going to get payed big with his initial lay of Arsenal of €5 and I was going to get payed big for a small bet on Rangers if they came through. Although Sean has the draw to cover himself too I wouldn’t have layed Arsenal. If I’m honest I thought Arsenal would win the game (about 3 outta 4 times), but I thought Rangers were decent value at 8/1, especially after both teams played the previous day. However, after some hard work, Sean got payed, I didn’t! His tactic worked, mine didn’t!

You’ll see we’ve added a Poll over on the right to see who you think will come out top this month? Sean is leading 3-0 (obviously he’s voting for himself every time he has a spare second :) ). Feel free to drop myself or Sean a vote (no registration needed) as we welcome all feedback and comments on this site.

Our betting bankroll

August 1st, 2009

I see Sean has got in there with his first post and forgot about the credit card charge. If he wants to go ahead and deposit a further 29 cents to even the balance then I’m happy for him to do so. As the minimum deposit on  Our betting bankrollBetfair is €15.00, it’s probably best if Sean uses his laser and deposits €20.29 cents to cover next months betting kitty too. I have a feeling he’s pretty confident going in to this month though and I’m guessing he feels that he wont need the €20 for next month as he’ll have over €20 in his account going in to September. The offer to make it an even playing field is there though, so don’t let it be said that I’m not playing fair. If Sean doesn’t bump up to €20, then the scales are already tipped in my favour 50.36% to 49.64%. Result!

Anyway, this got me thinking about our bankrolls. There will be people on here reading these posts thinking our monthly bankroll is ridiculously small; but if we’re loosing €20 every month it’s €240 per year down the pan. We need to be able to keep this site alive by betting wisely and obviously trying to win, but if not then at least keep losses to a minumum. Yes this is a fun site to be involved in, but if someone came along to me and asked me did I want to get involved in a website that cost me €50 a month to work on but I might break even, would I get involved? Absolutely not! So we’ve selected a monthly bankroll that we can both afford to loose. At the end of the day, there are very very few professional gamblers and I’m sure most of these have to begin with rules like this. Ours is never bet with money we can’t afford to loose. This might sound negative, but I can’t go in to this project thinking just because we’re online betting in the public eye that I’m guaranteed to make a profit, even though I’ve never lost a bet before :) .

That’s a bit about why we choose our bankroll, and here’s a bit about how I plan to keep my disicpline when using it. So I have €20 a month, how do I use it? I asked myself this today and thought that the most logical answer I could come up with was I will try to treat my €20 per month as if it’s €20,000. If you’re running on a small bankroll you have to treat it with the same respect as a large one. I mentioned that I want to use this online betting experience as one where I’m disciplined. To keep my discipline I need rules. If I had a bankroll of 20k and could bet 5k to win €800 would I do it? Could I afford to loose 5k just like that? Obviously it depends on what the bet is. But no! there’s no way I would risk 25% of my 20k bankroll without carefully considering the consequences. What I need to program myself in to to thinking that my €20 carries the same significance and if I was betting €5 to win 80 cents is it worth it? I need to think not of loosing €5 but of loosing 25% of my bankroll. So you might see me starting off with €1 bets! I know it’s only a euro but it’s 5% of my bankroll and I’m way behind Sean if I loose it!

It’s not going to be easy trying to operate like this, but if I dont approach it with this kind of mentality then I know I’ll definately lose unless I get very lucky! What’s to stop me picking a 5/1 shot at the Galway races this evening and blowing the whole €20 in the hope that I get way ahead of Sean? Discipline, that’s what has to stop me. I’m very tempted (I’m thinking it’s only €20, but it’s not, it’s 100% of my banroll, if I lose it I’m dead for this month) but I know I need to establish rules for myself or I have no chance of succeeding as an online gambler. What the rules are, I don’t know the exact details yet, but I’ll need to make sure I have my own rules in place before too long. I have a feeling they might involve taking very small profits in order to succeed, but if that’s what has to be done then so be it. If I could guarantee myself 10% per day profit on a €1000 stake that’s €100/day or €700 per week profit. I’d take that and I’m sure so would everyone else reading this!

And we’re off!

August 1st, 2009

Enda has already got out of the traps fast and got a few hours head start on me with his first blog post, but this is a marathon, not a sprint ;-)

Unfortunately i’ve already made a big mistake – i deposited €20 in to my account, however i did so using a visa credit card which means betfair took 30c for themselves (1.5% charge). So i’m immeditaely down 30c on Enda with €19.70. For some reason, i have 1c on my account too, so my actual balance as it stands right this second is €19.71.

betfair account

If you use a laser card to deposit funds, there are no charges. I have a laser card, so don’t ask me why i used my credit card… maybe it’s because i know my credit cards details off by heart and it’s just less hassle for me!

Anyway, I’m willing to give Enda a 30c head start – he’s gonna need it by the end of the month :twisted: Enda has his eye on the All Ireland quarter finals and whilst i’m tempted myself, i’ll hold off betting on them.

The only reason i’ll bet on them is if i’m at home, watching TV and they happen to be on – i’ll bet in-play as can read games much better when they’re in play. To start off, i’ll probably place a few small bets at very low odds just to start off and get me above the €20 mark.

Looking at soccer odds (my favourite market), it’s really hard for me to bet on friendlies which is all that there is these days, so you won’t see me risking too much until mid-august when things start getting competitive (in england which is where most of my bets will go).

Any bets i do place though will be blogged about and Enda must do the same. We both HAVE to bet our full €20 at some stage and in order to beat each other, we’re both gonna go for broke… you won’t see either of us happy to break even at €20 for the month…