Posts Tagged ‘success’

discipline the key to success

August 28th, 2009

Whilst it’s all very well and good placing bets, there is risk attached to every single bet i place.

It was always my intention to race ahead of Enda early in the month and then drop anchors and wait for him to catch up.

Spreeblicks Fail-Anchor
Creative Commons License photo credit: derSven ¶

That puts a lot of psychological pressure on him because when he’s placing bets, he’ll know in the back of his mind not only does he have to profit, he has to catch up with me and so if he happens to lose bets, he might get desperate for profit and lose his composure.

So right now, my discipline is being tested. For me, it’s simply a case of not betting until Sunday or Monday when august ends and when i see how Enda has got on trying to catch up.

I’m hoping Enda will bet and lose this weekend or not move at all. I have a big enough cushion to feel safe. I know that he MUST place bets and realistically he must gamble at relatively large odds to win.

Even if he was to put his entire bank of €41 on a 1.35 shot, it wouldn’t be enough to secure victory. So he’s under pressure to find value bets and make sure they win.

I have the luxury of watching what happens to Enda along with you guys. 20 of you have backed him to win for whatever reason, so if he loses, he’ll not be the only one with egg on his face :mrgreen:

August 2009 – Wk4 Review – Enda

August 23rd, 2009

I began the week with a loosing bet on the Premier League champions Manchester United who lost 1-0 away to Burnley. This was a brilliant result for Burnley and a bad start to the week for me.

Incidentally, my first winning bet of the week was on another United game, when they won 5-0 away to Wigan. I put €4.90 on United and layed the bet of at odds of 1/10 to guarantee a profit. I made some predictions on the Premier League games and this was one that I followed through on with a bet. On the same day, I dropped 10 cents on another attempt to back small and lay big to secure a big profit.

I followed my success on United with a bet on Cardiff city at home to Bristol City. Again, I used a cautious approach and layed the bet off at lower odds after Cardiff took the lead. I won €1.68 here and this got me back to a decent level of profit for the week. At this stage I was up €1.90 and I was happy that I was able to come back from my loss on United earlier in the week.

My final bet of the week came on a game in the German Bundesliga. I backed Hamburg away to Wolfburg at odds of 4.3. Hamburg went 2-0 after 7 minutes and I was able to guarantee a win of at least €0.96. Hamburg won the game though, and I won €3 on this game.

Here’s my bets for the week:
Loosing €2 on United
Getting back on level terms by backing United to win
Hitting profit for the first time by backing Cardiff
€3 win on German Bundesliga match

bets_review_week4

Here’s my stats:
Opening Balance: €37.00
Bet this week: €14.14
Bet this month: €77.04
Current Balance: €41.57
Profit/Loss (week): €4.57 profit
Profit/Loss (month): €21.57 profit

€4.57 might not be a massive win but it’s 32% profit on my stake for the week. Considering I layed off all my winning bets, my return on investment could have been much higher. Will this stop me laying off? Absolutely not, if I could profit 32% every week I’d be very very happy to lay off every bet. My low risk, cautious strategy has paid off for the 3rd week in a row. Sean is willing to put a lot more of his kitty on the line and is probably the favourite to win at this stage, but I’ve now doubled my €20 bankroll for the month so far and I’ll be continuing with this approach this week.

August 2009 – Wk3 Review – Enda

August 17th, 2009

I was away in Liverpool for the week and I’m only getting time to post about my bets for the week and review last week now. Sorry about the delay!

I had three football bets this week, all singles and Sean is very very lucky that I didn’t go for a treble that I really fancied. But accumulators are a bookies dream against the average punter and are very hard to pull off. As far as I can remember, the big four only all won in the same weekend, twice last season. It’s a rare occurence to pull off an accumulator even if you’re going for the so called sure things!

Anyway, the treble that I was going to do Stoke, Fulham and Sunderland. I really thought Sunderland had a great chance this weekend but Bolton are a strong side so I decided against it. Ah well, I thought it was the correct decision not to go for it and lose €2 from my kitty, I was wrong, I’m over it!

The three single bets that I did were as follows:

  • Fulham to win away at Portsmouth, I tipped this one on Saturday and although Fulham bagged a very lucky goal through a wicked Robbie Earnshaw deflection off a Clint Dempsey shot, for me this was thee value bet of the opening day of the premiership! I’ve been waiting to get my money on this one for the past 2 weeks. Fulham’s away form was dismal last year but they’ve had a good pre-season in their away matches and have been scoring goals. Portsmouth are a weakened squad having let go 8 players over the Summer, There also seems to be unrest with whatever players are left at the club. I had to get on this one. I did green out and layed Fulham for €10 at 1.10 (before the match) so I gave away €1.00 of my potential winnings of €5.10. Still no need to get greedy and €4.10 will do me every time, stress free. If Portsmouth equalise with a late goal I’m up €7.33 so it’s worth taking the €1 hit and greening out.
  • Stoke at home to Burnley. At even money I had to be on Stoke here and 2-0 up at half time was good enough for me. A €2 stake on Stoke at even money netted me a return of €4.00 and a net profit of €1.90 after Betfair took their commission.
  • Shelbourne away to Finn Harps. Shelbourne are pushing the top of the table and I fancied them at Finn Park. They went ahead half way through the second half but I was unfortunate that Finn Harps equalised with an 88th minute penalty. Some you win, some you lose. I lost €2 euro here, but my other bets on the Premier League were already home and dry so it was work the risk!
  • football_betting_stoke_fulham_shelbourne

    Next up was My Monster Bet of €30.00
    This deserves a seperate post really but as I’m reviewing my week it’ll have to go in here. I seen Sean pulling away yesterday and I decided I needed to close the gap a bit if I seen the opportunity. I needed a good bet to stop him getting too far ahead. At this stage, I had a feeling he was on Tiger in the golf and thought that he might further increase his balance past the €40.00 mark that he hit yesterday.

    I risked nearly my entire bankroll on what I think is the nearest thing to free money available in sports betting. You will get burned on bets like this eventually, but this man is thee ultimate athlete and I had to go for it!

    Cometh the hour cometh the Bolt! Enter Mr. Usain Bolt in the 2009 100 metres sprint world championship in Berlin. I watched it and he’s standing on the line saying “I’m ready, Are you ready? Let’s Go!” and Tyson Gaye, his biggest competition is standing beside him in a ball of nerves!

    He proved my bet to be the right move, and crushed the field by 2 metres with a new world record of 9.58 seconds! I got my bet on and I’m not afraid to admit my fear, and that I layed it back off too. I backed him at 1.10 for a 10% profit and layed him of at 1.01 to loose 32 cents of my €3 profit.

    usain_bolt_betting

    My reason for this was to cover a photo finish. If it did come to a photo, from my experience using betfair, Bolt would have been backed at 1.01 and I’d be guaranteed €2 profit no matter what happens. No Chance of a photo chance! This man for me has to be one of thee best sportsmen of ‘all’ time. Seriously! I watched him in the olympics. I also bet on him and he is an absolute phenomenon! He just glides down the track like it’s the easiet thing in the world! There’s always a risk in track and field betting with injury, false starts and of course drugs, so there’s chance you can loose a large stake here in the hope of getting a very small profit! But I took action to increase my bankroll and it’s paid off in a big way! After Sean’s loss on Tiger, this €3 will be an extra thorn in his side! It’s up to Sean to do the chasing now! The pressure is on him to to pull off some great bets.

    This left my balance at €37.11 and I staked 11 cents on Rory McIlroy at 250/1 in the golf with 9 holes gone. If he made a charge in the back nine and the leaders slipped, I could have profited big with a lay. It didn’t happen that way, no biggie! I now have €37.00 of a balance and I’ve stormed ahead of Sean. Even if Tiger did come through for him, I wouldn’t have batted an eyelid. I’m playing my own game, and I’d be making the same bets!

    Here’s my stats:
    Opening Balance: €30.77
    Bet this week: €38.10
    Bet this month: €62.90
    Current Balance: €37.00
    Profit/Loss (week): €6.23 profit
    Profit/Loss (month): €17.00 profit

Patience pays off

August 8th, 2009

I mentioned that I had a couple of bets in the 2009 Bridgestone Invitational a couple of days back. I initially backed Justin Leonard in this at odds of 49/1, hoping he’d push up the leaderboard and I planned to lay him off at smaller odds then. He’s a good player and was in the top 20 in this tournament last year. He also showed well in the 2009 British Open tying for 8th place so I thought it was worth a bet. I then backed Boo Weekley at 210/1, he’s a player that ‘can’ push up the leaderboard so I was going in with the same strategy with him. Weekley was sitting at 3 under par after 7 holes in the 3rd round and was trading at 85/1 so I was hoping he could grab another few birdies and give me some value. He had a shocking time from then on and like Leonard, now seems to be out of the running. I’m now writing both these bets off as losses as I can’t see either player featuring going forward. The lays below shown in pink are unmatched.

Bridgestone_Invitational_Leonard_Weekley

Now for the good stuff! I had 4 football bets between yesterday and today, 2 losses and 2 wins. The important thing here though was that the losses were small and the wins were big (relatively speaking). I lost on both Reading and West Brom in the Championship. Both these teams were pretty short odds (around even money) but I expected both to win and I went in with the strategy if one wins I get my money back, if both win I double my money. Unfortunately both teams drew so I lost a euro there.

Football_winnings

Earlier this evening, my first real big bets came through for me. I bet €2 on Dungannon Swifts away to Institute in Irish Premier League at odds of 2/1 and profited €4. It was a 90th minute penalty that came through for me, but they all count. I’d been waiting on this one as I placed the bet early on Friday morning. Institute released a lot of players over the Summer and I heard they are also injury hit at the minute, so this was a value bet going for Dungannon at 2/1.

The next monster (by my standards :) ) of €4.28 was lumped on Waterford United away to Kildare County in the League of Ireland 1st Division. Were my bet on Dungannon had real value, the odds on this one was low at 1.56, but I sat down and analysed these matches with 2 good friends of mine on Thursday night and we all agreed that this one was ‘thee’ bet to go for this weekend. Look where Kildare are in the League Table and Waterford are riding high, pushing for promotion. I was down to €14 before these bets settled up and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t worried. If both these bets didn’t come in, I would have found it very difficult to catch Sean. But for now, I’m back in the game! I expect Sean to go further ahead as he seems to be sitting well in the golf with Tiger and Padraig Harrington, but I’m back in business and I’ve shown that my patient approach has paid off (at least this time anyway). New balance = €26.36, result! I’ve now bet over the €20 quota for the month, maybe that’ll do me for August :)

Loosing, then Winning at Poker

August 5th, 2009

Last night I sat at a 2cent/4cent no limit cash table in the hope of making a swift buck. I sit down at the table with 50cents. I dont play the first 3 or 4 hands as I get nothing cards. Then I’m dealt AK off suit. I raise pre-flop to 12 cents, a decent size raise you would think in a game like this, but a guy goes all in (he had about $2.50). This guy has been betting at every pot with nothing so I have to call. Flop comes 10, rag, rag – so he’s hit a pair of 10’s. Turn comes, I hit a King so I’m ahead, river comes, he hits a 6 for a 2 pair. So I’m down 50 cents in dollars, that’s 35 cents in euros. I’m gutted that I’ve fallen another 35 cents behind Sean as I know he’s had his fourth day of profit in a row. I go to another 2/4 table with a dollar this time (€0.70) and I play a few hands. No good cards, then I get A9 and I’m on the big blind anyway, so I check. Board flops A97 so I’ve hit! What happens next? I loose my connection and that’s the end of that. I lost another 14 cents, not a nightmare but that’s €0.49 that I’m down for my nights play. That’s the end of me and cash games for now! See the transactions highlighted in red. If you’re wondering why my balance is up an extra €4 on the right hand side, it’s because I forgot I had a bet in play before starting the competition.

betfair_poker_040809

I get up early today and I decide to play a $2+$0.20 Super Turbo NL Hold’em sit and go tournament. I get a few decent cards and I play well. I get to the last 2 and gain the chip lead but I’m then beat into 2nd place when the other guy draws a straight. I lift $5.40 for my $2.20 investment and I’m back ahead! I took €2.58 to the tables in total and I come out with €4.31 so that’s a total profit of €1.73. My new balance stands at €21.59 and I’m officially ahead of my €20.00 monthly kitty for the first time. If it goes wrong at the poker table this morning I loose €1.53 for the day on top of the 49 cents last night, but I was confident! If I did win the $2.00 + 20 game, I’d be up another €2.55 and would have closed the gap on Sean. It wasn’t to be. I don’t ‘think’ I’ll have another bet today. If I spend too much time at this, I might stop enjoying it! I also got feedback from Betfair on posted videos of my poker sessions, I’ll have an update on this later.

Gambling on myself

August 2nd, 2009

I needed to get some momentum going today to close the gap on Sean. He hasn’t lost a bet so far and I’m impressed! I’ve done nothing but loose so far, and continued that trend earlier today! I backed Donegal to beat Cork at 7/2 in the hope that I could lay them off in play at 11/10, same idea as my bet on the the Limerick-Meath game yesterday with a similar result. Donegal never got close to Cork after the first 2 minutes! Another loss:

betfair_donegal_cork_aug02

At the same time as this, I placed a very very small bet of 32 cents (only 1.6% of my monthly bankroll) on Rangers to beat Arsenal in the Emirates Cup. I thought Rangers were worth a punt at odds of 8/1, given that both them and Arsenal played yesterday anything could have happened in this two horse race. A return of 2.24 for a stake of 32 cents would have been great. I was hoping that the game would be tight and Rangers would sneak a goal late in the second half. I was wrong, it’s 2-0 Arsenal as I’m writing this and that’s another loosing bet – bar a miracle. That’s four loosing bets on the trot to be exact. Not Good!

betfair_rangers_arsenal

So my balance after both these bets was €16.60. Down €3.40 for the month so far. I was going to leave it at that for the day. I sat down and watched the Donegal match for half an hour and decided I needed to fight back hard and decrease Sean’s lead. I decided to bet on myself on the Betfair poker tables again. I was determined I’d come out ahead and went straight to the sit and go tournaments in the Betfair Poker Lobby. I entered a $2.00 + 20c rake tourney with 9 players, where the top 3 are placed. I didn’t get a card so I couldn’t make a play. When I did go all in, I was ahead in the heads up so I made the right move but I was zapped by a king on the river (I had Ace high the other guy had King high). I finished just outside the prize money in 4th place. So I’m down another €1.56 (that’s 2 dollars 20 cents in euro – the Betfair poker tables operate in dollars). Balance = 15.04! I went to the poker tables determined and I know from experience if I keep my discipline I can turn a profit. I brush off the first game and enter another $2+$0.20 Super Turbo NL Hold’em game. I play my normal game, I get a few good hands this time and I take the $9 (€6.37) for first place. Here’s the details of my GAA losses and my poker winnings:

betfair_poker_winnings

So I’ve got my balance back to €19.85, I’m still down 15 cents for August but I’m back in the game!

sean takes an early lead

August 1st, 2009

Day 1, first bet and it’s gone perfectly.

I backed Spartak Moscow to beat FK Krasnodar at odds of 1.3. I stuck €2 on it.

all in the green

After 21 minutes, Spartak Moscow took a 1-0 lead and their odds dropped immediately. I then layed them at odds of 1.08 and stuck 3.75 on that.

So at this stage, i couldn’t lose. If Spartak won, i’d be up 75c, if they lost or drew, i’d be up 25c.

So with almost 70 minutes left to play in the match, i could put my feet up and sip cocktails whilst i planned my next move to turn up the heat on Enda…

Spartak ended up winning the match 4-0, so i won 75c. Betfair take commission on all winnings, so i actually got 72c.

It means my kitty has now increased from €19.71 to €20.42 and it also means i’ve taken an early lead this month… the first lucky.ie punter to hit profit.

20.42

Game on Enda :twisted: