Posts Tagged ‘lay’

betting against champions league elite

September 16th, 2009

Last night i layed against Man Utd, Real Madrid, Juventus and Bayern Munich all winning. If one failed to win, i’d win €5.

If all of them had won, i’d lose €22. So it was a risky move but i’d earned the right to bet like this having built up a huge lead over Enda.

  • Utd were away to Besiktas and won 1-0.
  • Madrid beat Zurich 4-2.
  • Bayern Munich beat Maccabi Haifa 3-0.
  • Juventus could only manage a 1-1 draw with Bordeaux :twisted:

So that draw means i claim €5 profit and extend my lead over Enda, plus touch the €75 mark :mrgreen: I didn’t think Utd would win and it took a late goal for them to nick it. I was really banking on the Utd match to go in my favour with, probably, the Bayern match as my next bet. The Juventus match would have been 3rd choice for me in terms of causing an upset and i expected Madrid to win at Zurich.

betfair balance over €70

But, at the end of the day it doesn’t matter what i predicted or how i arrived at my profit – it’s still profit :smile:

I started the month with €25 and i’m now up to €74.91 which is an incredible achievement. Assuming i don’t lose anything, i can cash out €50 for myself at the end of the month… it’s hard work this gambling lark ;-)

I almost feel sorry for Enda this month because despite winning relatively big with 2 accumulator bets, he doesn’t stand a chance of catching me :-) Enda will do well to match his €50 balance of last month. At the minute, €80 should be do-able for me but how tempting is that €100 mark now?!

stung by another lay

August 21st, 2009

2 nights ago, i layed burnley winning 1-0 and lost €15. Last night, the same thing happened with Roma.

It was 1-1 when i layed against 5 goals. I bet €5 and i’d lose €14.95 if 5 goals went in. The match ended 3-3 and i lost €14.95.

Burned for the second time in as many days. My balance was down to just over €16 now… So i banked on Dinamo Zagreb beating Hearts at 1.49.

bets aug 20th

I was confident this was a banker and even mentioned it to Enda in an email, but i hadn’t intended betting on it. My hand was forced by that massive €14.95 loss. If i got this wrong and zagreb didn’t win, my balance would have been €0 and i’d have been out of the competition for August.

So, temporarily, my balance was down to €0. Of course Dinamo won comfortably (4-0), my bank was never in danger ;-) so i won over €8 back to leave my balance sitting on €24. It begs the question why don’t i do that more often!

I make it look like lays are a bad way of betting but they’re actually the easiest imo… i’ve just had a really bad streak of luck.

If you get them wrong, they can go massively wrong as i’ve proved… the stakes are very high so it’s a really risky strategy laying at relatively high odds.

At one stage tonight Roma were about 1.03 to lay, so had i bet 90c on them not winning i would have won €30… that’s where lays can work really well. But obviously with hindsight it’s easy to pick winners :mrgreen:

So another big loss today but i halved it by gambling big. I did place another big bet yesterday right after my win with Dinamo Zagreb. Boca Juniors to beat Velez at even money. I stuck €10 on it.

Boca went 1-0 up after 3 minutes so i was immediately in the driving seat with this bet. I could have greened out for about €4 profit straight away but didn’t – i was confident Boca would win. Boca then hit the post and had another shot trickle past the same post – all within the opening 20 minutes.

I’d done my homework on this one and thought it was a relatively safe bet as Boca had a good pre season plus they made some smart signings. They were up against the league champions though so this was by no means a banker. Ordinarily i wouldn’t have put €10 on it, but i was eager to get back past the €30 mark…

I layed Boca at 1.38 at the start of the second half which meant i effectively had a free bet on Boca and stood to win €6.20 if boca held on for victory. They conceded a late 80th minute goal which meant i didn’t win anything… but i didn’t lose either :smile:

I also won about €5 in total on a few tennis matches to leave my balance for the day sitting at €29.88. So i basically won back the majority of a €15 loss yesterday. Overall, i lost a bit for the day, but it felt like victory :-)

4th consecutive day of profit

August 4th, 2009

Today i layed Dinamo Zagreb, Maccabi Haifa and Panathinaikos all winning their 2nd leg Champions League Matches (in an accumulator bet). All were at home but just Panathinaikos needed to win over the 90 minutes to qualify, so i thought it was a smart move laying all 3 collectively (also given the fact none of the 3 had won their away matches). I was right.

august 4th winnings

I wanted to stick €3 on it at odds of 4, meaning i’d risk losing €9 if this bet went against me. I could only stake €2.35 though, so my total liability was €7.05. Later on i placed a further 65c bet on at odds of 3.5.

So in total, i risked €8.68 on 1 of 3 teams not to win. If the bet came good, i’d win €3.

These are the sort of bets that you really don’t want to get wrong. There is no margin for error. Had i got this wrong, it would have wiped out my previous 3 days of hard work and steady profit plus it would have left me €4 euro in the red overall and gifted Enda the lead.

So it was a risky move and a suicidal one to most people given the fact i was well ahead of Enda :-)

Having said all that, this was also a calculated risk and i know that it’s extremely rare 3 home sides will all win 2nd legs in competitive champions league matches over 90 minutes, when all 3 have failed to win their away matches in the first leg.

It started off fantastic… odds on favourites maccabi haifa went 3-0 DOWN in the opening 15 minutes of their match at home. ‘Easy money’ i said to myself… didn’t even matter what happened in the other two matches.

Well, good thing i didn’t lay them outright because Haifa came back, incredibly, to win 4-3. At this stage i was worried – i had analysed all 3 matches before hand and i had placed this in 2nd spot in terms of causing an upset. In my own mind, i had placed the Dinamo / Salzberg match as no.1 in terms of causing an upset. Luckily, i was right… not only did Dinamo fail to win, they lost.

Finally, Panathinaikos won their match 3-0, but i had allowed for that before hand… i was expecting them (more so than the other two favourites to win). So i got my predictions spot on on this accumulator bet, but Haifa pulled off  a shock comeback which turned up the heat on me slightly…

Safe in the knowledge i’d won €3, i also placed two in-match bets in the Panathinaikos match. I bet 50c and lost it, then i bet €2 and won 24c, so i suffered a slight loss there of 26c. I also placed an in game bet in the salzburg match and won 12c…

So in total, a gross profit of €2.70 today. 4th consecutive day of profit. Biggest profit day yet for me. My balance now stands at €27.38.You’d think my luck would run out at some stage, but it’s my job to prove you wrong and keep profiting.

balance august 4th

4 consecutive days of profit can’t be fluked, so i’ve really laid down an early marker this month. Enda is playing it safe and hoping i’ll beat myself but so far those tactics aren’t working and i’m strecthing my lead day by day…