Posts Tagged ‘gaa’

Gambling on myself

August 2nd, 2009

I needed to get some momentum going today to close the gap on Sean. He hasn’t lost a bet so far and I’m impressed! I’ve done nothing but loose so far, and continued that trend earlier today! I backed Donegal to beat Cork at 7/2 in the hope that I could lay them off in play at 11/10, same idea as my bet on the the Limerick-Meath game yesterday with a similar result. Donegal never got close to Cork after the first 2 minutes! Another loss:

betfair_donegal_cork_aug02

At the same time as this, I placed a very very small bet of 32 cents (only 1.6% of my monthly bankroll) on Rangers to beat Arsenal in the Emirates Cup. I thought Rangers were worth a punt at odds of 8/1, given that both them and Arsenal played yesterday anything could have happened in this two horse race. A return of 2.24 for a stake of 32 cents would have been great. I was hoping that the game would be tight and Rangers would sneak a goal late in the second half. I was wrong, it’s 2-0 Arsenal as I’m writing this and that’s another loosing bet – bar a miracle. That’s four loosing bets on the trot to be exact. Not Good!

betfair_rangers_arsenal

So my balance after both these bets was €16.60. Down €3.40 for the month so far. I was going to leave it at that for the day. I sat down and watched the Donegal match for half an hour and decided I needed to fight back hard and decrease Sean’s lead. I decided to bet on myself on the Betfair poker tables again. I was determined I’d come out ahead and went straight to the sit and go tournaments in the Betfair Poker Lobby. I entered a $2.00 + 20c rake tourney with 9 players, where the top 3 are placed. I didn’t get a card so I couldn’t make a play. When I did go all in, I was ahead in the heads up so I made the right move but I was zapped by a king on the river (I had Ace high the other guy had King high). I finished just outside the prize money in 4th place. So I’m down another €1.56 (that’s 2 dollars 20 cents in euro – the Betfair poker tables operate in dollars). Balance = 15.04! I went to the poker tables determined and I know from experience if I keep my discipline I can turn a profit. I brush off the first game and enter another $2+$0.20 Super Turbo NL Hold’em game. I play my normal game, I get a few good hands this time and I take the $9 (€6.37) for first place. Here’s the details of my GAA losses and my poker winnings:

betfair_poker_winnings

So I’ve got my balance back to €19.85, I’m still down 15 cents for August but I’m back in the game!

I’ve lost

August 1st, 2009

I had a €2 bet on the Meath v Limerick 4th round qualifier and it’s not good news. I didn’t think there would be much between the teams and I thought that Limerick provided a bit of value at almost 2/1. I was wrong! I thought that if Limerick kept it tight until around half time then their odds would drop to just above even money. So I placed a lay of limerick for €2.50 at 2.1 to try and green up on this market. This would have left me with 50 cents profit for both the draw and Meath and just over a euro if Limerick won it. Unfortunately the lowest that Limerick traded during the match was 2.48 so I ended up loosing my initial 2 euro stake! I was surprised that it wasn’t picked up as Limerick should have levelled the game right on the stroke off full time but they carried the ball too far. Here’s my bet below:

betfair_meath_limerick

After Sean’s win earlier today, I thought my best bet to catch him was at the poker table. I entered a nine man table game at 10c + 1c rake in the hope that I could turn a profit but it wasn’t to be and I went out in 6th place with Ace/Nine suited. If I placed first in this sit and go tournament I would have won 45 cents so I was right back up there with Sean. I videod some hands in the game and I’ve emailed Betfair to see if it’s ok to post videos without breaking their terms of service. If I’m not, i’ll add the video to this post later. Betfair only seems to have taken 8 cents instead of 11 cents for this game so my new balance is 17.92:

betfair_balance_aug01_a

That leaves me €2.08 in the red by day one and I’m trailing Sean by €2.50 already. I still think I’ll have another bet of the Gaa matches tomorrow but I may let the game start before betting this time. I’m behind but I’m not finished by a long shot. Tomorrow is a new day!

I’ve never lost a bet!

August 1st, 2009

That’s not 100% true, actually I have lost bets – lots of them, but I had to open my blogs on here with a controversial statement! In a way it is true though as the birth of this site and the competition between myself and Sean is a totally fresh start to online betting for me! As off today, I’m neither a winning gambler nor a loosing gambler, so I’ve never lost a bet! The fact that I haven’t actually won a bet is another story! Until we get this site off the ground I will not be placing any offline bets or any other online bets other than those mentioned on here. I have a €20 online budget and that’s my lot!

So where do I start? Well as this is a new idea and I’m excited about it. I know that I’ll probably find it very hard not to rush in and have a hundred bets tomorrow :) I need to keep the discipline though and try to ensure that I’m getting value out of my €20 over the month of August. Speaking of the €20, here’s a screenshot of my Betfair account with a starting balance of €20 as of 1st of August.

betfair account balance

Last night, I also popped out a book I’ve had for a while, ‘Winning on Betfair for Dummies’. It’s a good wee book and gives a good run through how Betfair works. Betfair is actually pretty simple, but it’s daunting enough to begin with so as part of my effort on here I will try to produce some videos on how to sign up to Betfair and how to use the site and the different types of bets you can place on there.

I’ve been looking at the all Ireland Quarter Final Football matches this weekend, here’s the odds below:

betfair_all_ireland_quarter_finals

I’m tempted to back a draw in the Dublin v Kerry game as I’m guessing it’ll be blown up if there’s a sniff of the side’s being level anywhere near the 70 minute mark. Dublin are going in to this one as favourites, but can you write of Kerry and are they worth a punt at 7/5? I wont be going for this one though for now but can I think it’s worth looking at a draw in one of the four games at odds of 9/1 and above and this for me is the most likely draw. I feel that there ‘might’ be a bit of value in Donegal at 7/2 in the game against Cork, this one might be worth a punt if the Donegal team come with the momentum of victories over Derry and Galway in the previous rounds. I’m probably going with my heart and not my head here and the low odds on Cork will probably be justified. I’ll leave it for now and will wait to watch the games and might place a bet in running depending on how things are going.

Jeez, I feel as though I’m putting my neck on the line with predictions like this on here and it’s only my first post, maybe I a need a new approach already :) But there’s no money on for now and I’ll be back later if I decide to go ahead with any of these bets. Cold or what? No disciplined! :)