Posts Tagged ‘balance’

closing in on my target

December 11th, 2009

At the start of the month i set myself a target of changing €20 on betfair in to €86.44.

The biggest overall winning balance so far on has been €74.16, so if i can hit my target, i’ll have well and truely smashed Enda’s record. So far, my plan is working beautifully.

It requires nerves of steel but i’ve always been happy to take on big bets. In the last few days, the riskiest odds i’ve taken on have been 1.31 and i stuck €30 on that. It was on over 2.5 goals in the Barcelona -v- Dinamo Kiev match. I placed that bet when the match was 1-1 in the first half.

Easy money i thought because Kiev had to win by 3 goals to qualify for the champions league knock out stages and Barcelona are just Barcelona – they can’t play any other way than all out attack. But the game was really poor. Kiev were happy with a draw and Barcelona were happy just to knock it about and treat the match as a training session. So i was left sweating on this right up until the last 5 minutes until Messi scored a free kick.

That won me €9.30 but more importantly saved me from losing €30 :smile: Since then, i’ve been placing sensible bets at lower odds and they’re all coming in. Snooker mainly. One of these days i’ll get burned on snooker because the BBC keep changing schedules and cutting off midway through frames which means i lose my ability to predict how shots will go and am just left to make decisions based purely on the fluctuating odds.

Anyway, my new betfair balance is €64.95.

masterclass betting

Add my paddypower balance of €5.12 to that and it means i now have an overall balance of €70.07.

betting tactics

So i’m on course to hit my target of €86.44 on betfair and if all goes to plan i could well end the month with a balance of €90+. The stakes are very high now though. I’m reluctant to bet 100% of my balance on any one event, but i have to if i’m to hit my target whilst minimising the risk of losing. I look like a genius if i pull it off and everything goes to plan. If i bet my entire balance on a 1.01 shot that loses, then i look like a complete idiot :mrgreen:

Still, fortune favours the brave and i’m determined to crush Enda this month and lay down a marker for 2010.

mission impossible?

August 17th, 2009

It’s now clear Enda has pulled away from me with a balance of €37. It means he’s over €15 ahead of me with 2 weeks remaining. Get it wrong this week, and i’m out of it.

Enda is now at an all time record high balance, so i doubt he’s gonna risk much, especially when he knows i’ve a mountain to climb to reach his level.

Glacier du Mont Collon
Creative Commons License photo credit: perry_maurice

So it’s now up to me to get back in to this and i’m prepared to lose everything now… so expect plenty of big bets and lots of movement with my balance this week.

I already have one big bet placed for this week and if it goes wrong, i’m in trouble. If it goes right (obviously i think it will), i’ll be over the €30 mark again and right back in it.

So the stakes are high now… this is usually when i’m at my best – just after losing big. I’ve come back from losses time and time again this month and i’ll need to do it again if i’m to catch up with Enda and get my no.1 spot back.

By Wednesday, my balance could be €12 or less. It could also be €31 + so i’m really going for it this week. I backed against Celtic winning in the champions league a couple of weeks ago and got burned. Tomorrow night, they’re at home and take on Arsenal. Parkhead is a fortress, particularly on big european nights so it would take a brave man to beat against Celtic tomorrow. I will be betting on the match, but i’ll have to see what stands out for me…

There are other european ties over the next couple of days, but i’m not sure how many will be televised. This weekend we also have another round of premier league ties so there’ll be plenty of opportunities for me there too.

I’m also hoping Enda does me a few favours… his €30 punt on usain bolt was, perhaps, an indication that he’s moving towards a more attacking style of betting – one which up until yesterday, had seen me hold the lead for the vast majority of august so far.

€40 mark passed

August 16th, 2009

A few minutes ago, i’m just after reaching and passing the €40 mark. It means i’ve doubled my money in 16 days… over 100% ROI.

aug 16th football

Yesterday, i won €3.50 on a Celtic match. I also won 96c on a Chelsea match. Today, i’m after adding another 91c on a Man Utd match. So my balance has risen by over €5 in this weekend and it’s now exactly €40.97.

This evening / early tomorrow morning, i expect to turn on the nitros and kill Enda off this month. I’m not sure how he’s done this weekend (he’s actually at the ManUtd v Birmingham match), but i’m confident he’s gonna get nowhere near me this weekend.

I could well have over DOUBLE his balance tomorrow morning and if i do, i’ll be cracking open the champagne and declaring victory for August 2009.

So, despite by big losses on Monday and Tuesday this week, i’ve recovered (not for the first time) and i’ve just set a new high balance record on of €40.97.

Tune in tomorrow to find out exactly how much i’ve earned this week and whether or not i’ve smashed today’s balance of €40.97….

new high balance record

August 7th, 2009

Last night i gambled big again and lost. Or so i thought ;-) I had backed a loser. I backed Lleyton Hewitt to win against Juan Martin Del Potro and once it became clear he was going to lose, i cut my losses and shaved a couple of cents off my loss by backing favourite Del Porto. So at this stage, i’d lose €1.60+ no matter who won.

tennis aug 7th

I moved on to Maria Sharapova’s match and put €3 on her to win. At times, it looked like i’d lose that too…

Not a good night… i was not looking forward to posting here explaining my losses… it could have been €5 down the drain.

But then i noticed (when looking at other bets) on the betfair forum, the Hewitt match was still active… (i’d switched off when del porto was 1.01 to win!).

I’d already lost at least €1.50 on this match but it was now back in play and so i was faced with a tough decision… do i risk more to win back my money or do i accept my loss and move on?

I waited until it went to a tie break and then backed Del Potro to win (remember earlier in the match i’d backed him to lose so this was a big decision as Hewitt was now the favourite). He ended up crushing hewitt in the tie break 7-2!

So i called it good and managed not only to win back my losses, but come out with a profit! Sharapova also came good so i finished the night with a balance of €28.10.

€28 betfair balance

It might appear to people reading this that i’m incredibly reckless with my bets, especially when i appear to be in a losing position…

But twice now i’ve managed to bet my way out of big losses. I took a €7.36 hit on the Celtic match a couple of nights ago yet i find myself sitting on an all time high balance of €28.10 today – less than 48 hours after i lost that €7.36.

Could this current total be enough to seal victory for August? Looking at Enda’s progress over the past week, you’d have to say yes.

p.s. cheers for the post on your tennis betting yesterday Enda – that’s what prompted me to have a look at the matches myself ;-)