Bad start to the month

December 8th, 2009 by enda No comments »

Last night I put a bet on a danish football match. I backed 0-0 at a stake of €2 hoping to lay it off for a few percent profit at half time. Immediately the home team scored. I then backed the home team to win at a stake of €4 also hoping to lay it off later and not to long after this the away team equalised:

danish_footballl_betting

Not the smartest bit of betting in the world and it was more trying to get in to a bit of profit and I didn’t really do my homework. So first action for the month and I’m €6 down :(

I really fancied Real Madrid tonight though and lumped €13.39 on them at odds of 2.36. This stood to profit me over €18 and I was chuffed when Ronaldo put them ahead early in the game. I was hoping to lay this around half time and ensure a profit. Marseille equalised before I got the chance to do so but I didn’t panic. I placed a lay in for Madrid to ensure a profit of €12.36 (before Betfair commission)

banking_on_madrid

if Real went on to win and at 3-1 up with only a few minutes left I’m hoping I’m up around €6 for the month as opposed to being down €6 this time last night :)

new tactics show promise

December 7th, 2009 by sean No comments »

New month, new tactics. So far this month, i pretty much banked on every single bet i’ve placed. High risk, very low reward. But i like to think i can tell the difference between a near certain result and a false result.

december bets

A false result would be Spurs beating Everton 2-0 at Everton. That’s what was happening tonight and had i stuck to my new tactics, i’d have got burned because Everton came back to draw 2-2. But i could see it coming.

In my mind there were a number of alarm bells ringing which stopped me from backing spurs;

  • Everton were at home – never bet against a home side if they have the quality to get back in to a match. It only takes a goal to get the home crowd gagging for more.
  • Spurs have a dodgy defence – they’re not traditionally a sound defensive side that you’d bank on.
  • Spurs do not have a ruthless streak – they can score goals but they can’t grind out results or cope with being favourites.

An hour or two later however i was banking on Benfica to win when they were 2-0 up at home. They went on to win 3-0. So why did i back them?

  • Winning mentality
  • Poor opposition with little threat
  • Home support

Now of course this is football and anything can happen, but if you take that attitude in to betting, you’ll never place a bet. Anyway, my new strategy is to bank on very short odds. 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 – whatever i think is good value.

I banked on Benfica to win to 1.01 when they were 2-0 up at half time. The odds suggested that winning was a formality and most people would agree. The odds also suggest that 1 time out of 100, Benfica would not win. Which is possible… a man sent off, a couple of injuries, a penalty… it can all happen. And that’s where i have to make the call – “will it happen today, right now?”. That’s what i’m thinking when i’m placing the bet. That’s what i was thinking when i didn’t back Spurs tonight….

If i place 100 banker bets at 1.01, the stats say that at least 1 of those 100 will fail. And that would leave my balance at €0.00. With my new tactics, i’m aiming to increase my balance by 5% per day.

betting tactics

It would mean i’d end the month with €86.44. It’s extremely high risk (one bet could wipe me out at any stage), but so far all my banker bets are working beautifully. I’ve even applied it to accumulator bets too.

Normally, i lose €5 every month with my 5 x €1 accumulator bets, but this month i’ve placed a €1 accumulator already and won 12c profit. Right now, my betfair balance is €28.82 which means i’m about 2 days ahead of my schedule.

paddypower bet

So this month will be interesting. It’s all about sticking to the plan and not getting cocky.

closing balance of nil

December 1st, 2009 by sean No comments »

I ended November 2009 with a balance of €0.00. At the weekend i placed 5 x €1 footie accumulator bets but none came in. Typical. I also blew my 25c betfair balance, but that was to be expected…

So yet again, we’ve both lost money last month. Enda claims his third successive victory which means it’s 3-1 to him in the head to head monthly battles.

I’ll be changing my tactics yet again this month though in a bid to pull things back..

November out…

November 30th, 2009 by enda No comments »

Today I bet a final €16.40 on a horse race, this was a mixture of backing and laying and I didn’t won or loose but it gets me over my betting quota for the month

horse_racing_bet

I’ve now bet over my €25 this month (€35.60 in fact) and my closing balance is €21.29. It’s now over to Sean to see if he can mount a come back. Very negative from me again but at the minute I’m in the lead. Sean came back from 20 cents in his betfair account earlier this month. Can he do it again?

self destruction again

November 24th, 2009 by sean No comments »

Tonight i decided to gamble my betfair bank (all €6+ of it). I’d built it up from just 20c but i needed to get back in to double figures to stand any real chance of winning this month.

So i bet big and layed liverpool for €10. I also layed stuttgart against rangers when they went 1-0 up.

sean loss

Liverpool hung on for a 1-0 victory (just about). And Stuttgart went on to grab a second, so both my bets didn’t come off and my balance is back down to 25c. So it’s looks like i’m out again.

A couple of days ago, i place a bet on Celtic beating Dundee Utd with about 20 minutes to go (it was 0-0). Celtic scored and i layed them immediately and it’s a good job i did as Dundee Utd scored 2 late goals to win. It left my balance pretty much untouched though.

I still have 5 accumulator bets to place on paddy power and i’ll leave them all until this weekend – just to keep Enda worried this month :smile:

X Factor 7th Elimination Betting

November 22nd, 2009 by enda No comments »

Today I risked €15.48 to win 12 cents. I’m banking on Joseph staying in the X Factor this week and have layed him to be eliminated. I thought Joe was the best performer last night so hopefully he’s not even in the bottom 2.

x_factor_7th_elimination_betting

You never know though, but we’ll know by 9 o’ clock. I’ve now bet €19.20 in total and Joe stays in tonight I’m roughly €10 ahead of Sean (unless he’s won since) and will leave the ball in his court to come back at me before betting my final €5.80. Negative tactics again but I’ll not but this kind of tactic secured victory last month. I’m not counting my chickens though. At 9 o’ clock I might have only €5.80 left.

Off to a loosing start…

November 14th, 2009 by enda No comments »

Last weekend I went for a 4 fold accumulator in the Premiership. I placed €3.72 on Arsenal to beat Wolves, Liverpool to beat Birmingham, Villa to beat Bolton and Man City to beat Burnley. Burnley grabbed a late equaliser against Man City last Saturday which crippled my bet, otherwise I would have been laying Liverpool in the last match of the 4 to guarantee profit. So I’m off to a loosing start for November and my balance now stands at €21.18. I’ll probably do the same thing as last month and risk all of this in one bet and see if Sean can mount a comeback. I know these are boring tactics but I want to make him work. I’ll be dissapointed if I loose this month again so if I can risk all of my €25 and come out unscathed hopefully I can mount a late challenge to try and get into profit again.

Have a look at tonight’s offer on PaddyPower, if nothing else it’s a bit of craic and I got a laugh at the pic below:

jedward_paddy_power

mother of all comebacks?

November 11th, 2009 by sean No comments »

In the last 4 days, i won back everything i lost on the liverpool match and went past the €40 mark. I then gambled about €10 of it, lost it and placed a banker bet on John and Edward not being in the bottom two last week.

It was always my intention to do that as i believed they were one of the best supported acts. Anyway, they did end up in the bottom two so i lost my entire bank….

Bar 20c. My balance in betfair on Sunday evening was 20c. You might think 20c is nothing, but i’ve managed to turn it in to €4.20 :mrgreen:

John and Edward were about 1.1 to go when it was announced they were in the bottom two on the x factor. Last week i played a similar bet and layed against the favourite to go – i did the same this time around and layed John and Edward going with my entire 20c.

They ended up staying to my delighted which meant i profitted by €2. On Monday evening, i then placed that €2 on the liverpool / birmingham match finishing 2-2. I got odds of 2-1 with 10 minutes to go and it was 2-2 at the time, so i thought it was decent value.

The match did indeed finish 2-2 so my balance is now €4.17. A remarkably comeback from just 20c and if i can go on to get back in to profit (above €20), it’ll be the ultimate great escape…

Anyway, check out the bets i placed and lost / won over the past few days…

sean comeback 2

sean comeback 1

I had placed €4 in to betfair games before the liverpool match so that’s why my account starts off as €13.40 – really it was €17.40. I then transferred the €4 back in to my account and you can see that in the first image…

Anyway, the mother of all comebacks is now on the cards…

liverpool loss

November 7th, 2009 by sean No comments »

Having built up a healthy profit over the past few days, i decided to go for it and really try to wrap things up this month.

I stuck €10 on a lay of the draw at half time in the lyon / liverpool match.

Gerrard and Torres in Bangkok
Creative Commons License photo credit: anothersaab

It finished 0-0 at half time, so i lost about €12. Eager to win it back, i backed liverpool at about 3.3 with €5 and that looked good, but lyon struck in the 90th minute to level it at 1-1 and leave me another €5 short.

So in total, liverpool cost me over €17 last night, but i could afford to lose it… my balance is down to €17 now on betfair, but i’m still pretty confident about November.

What goes up must come down, but it’s all about timing and so far i’ve finished every month relatively strongly…

cruise control

November 4th, 2009 by sean No comments »

Tonight Man Utd went 3-1 at home to CSKA Moscow. I immediately layed CSKA moscow with €5 at 1.4. Utd have a great home record in europe and i knew that Rooney & Evra were warming up so they meant business now that they were 3-1 down.

Two late goals from Utd meant the game finished 3-3 and i won €5. Too easy ;-)

man utd -v- cksa moscow

My betfair balance is now €35. My paddypower balance is €5. So i’ve a nice round balance of €40 now. Low risk, moderate profit, quick and decisive betting – it’s not my usual style but it seems to be working well!