New month, new tactics. So far this month, i pretty much banked on every single bet i’ve placed. High risk, very low reward. But i like to think i can tell the difference between a near certain result and a false result.
A false result would be Spurs beating Everton 2-0 at Everton. That’s what was happening tonight and had i stuck to my new tactics, i’d have got burned because Everton came back to draw 2-2. But i could see it coming.
In my mind there were a number of alarm bells ringing which stopped me from backing spurs;
- Everton were at home – never bet against a home side if they have the quality to get back in to a match. It only takes a goal to get the home crowd gagging for more.
- Spurs have a dodgy defence – they’re not traditionally a sound defensive side that you’d bank on.
- Spurs do not have a ruthless streak – they can score goals but they can’t grind out results or cope with being favourites.
An hour or two later however i was banking on Benfica to win when they were 2-0 up at home. They went on to win 3-0. So why did i back them?
- Winning mentality
- Poor opposition with little threat
- Home support
Now of course this is football and anything can happen, but if you take that attitude in to betting, you’ll never place a bet. Anyway, my new strategy is to bank on very short odds. 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 – whatever i think is good value.
I banked on Benfica to win to 1.01 when they were 2-0 up at half time. The odds suggested that winning was a formality and most people would agree. The odds also suggest that 1 time out of 100, Benfica would not win. Which is possible… a man sent off, a couple of injuries, a penalty… it can all happen. And that’s where i have to make the call – “will it happen today, right now?”. That’s what i’m thinking when i’m placing the bet. That’s what i was thinking when i didn’t back Spurs tonight….
If i place 100 banker bets at 1.01, the stats say that at least 1 of those 100 will fail. And that would leave my balance at €0.00. With my new tactics, i’m aiming to increase my balance by 5% per day.
It would mean i’d end the month with €86.44. It’s extremely high risk (one bet could wipe me out at any stage), but so far all my banker bets are working beautifully. I’ve even applied it to accumulator bets too.
Normally, i lose €5 every month with my 5 x €1 accumulator bets, but this month i’ve placed a €1 accumulator already and won 12c profit. Right now, my betfair balance is €28.82 which means i’m about 2 days ahead of my schedule.
So this month will be interesting. It’s all about sticking to the plan and not getting cocky.