RVP inspiring Arsenal and set to top the scoring charts

October 31st, 2011 by bet365 No comments »

The more cynical Arsenal supporters are suggesting he is playing for a new contract or worse, a move. Others are hoping he is revelling in his role as captain, leader and main source of inspiration in an Arsenal team still recovering from a bruising start to the season. Either way, there is no stopping Robin Van Persie right now.

A 4-3 horror show of a defeat to Blackburn in September left Gunners fans wondering whether the season was to be spent languishing in mid-table, a comfortable position for some, but not for a side who haven’t been out of the top four since 1996.

But the club have quietly begun to re-build the season, winning eight of their last nine games in all competitions since the disaster at Ewood– the sole defeat coming against north London rivals Tottenham.

The inspiration on the revival is undoubtedly Dutch striker Van Persie, who has hit 12 goals already this season, taking his Premier League tally for the calendar year to an astounding 28 in 27 games, justifying his tag as a favourite in the Premiership top scorer betting.

He also seems to be thriving in the role of captain, with the summer departures of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri leaving him as the obvious senior choice to take the armband. He is taking leading by example to a whole new level.

He isn’t alone in the Gunners’ quiet revolution, Aaron Ramsey has made great strides this season, almost revelling in the spotlight made free by the departures of Fabregas and Nasri. Theo Walcott, almost written off last season, has made great strides and is beginning to resemble the player we all thought he would be when he burst into the Southampton team six years ago.

The run-away Manchester clubs suggests that Arsenal’s lengthy premier league odds are justified – and Wenger himself has already ruled out the title, something he doesn’t usually do until mid-April. But their performance at Chelsea gave them the real belief that they could compete with the best in the country again – something that 8-2 hammering by United in August took away.

The key now for Arsenal fans is sustaining the run and thus ensuring their leader and main source of inspiration is happy to commit his future to the club, with the looming presence of money-bags Man City a growing concern.

City surge ahead in title race betting

October 24th, 2011 by bet365 No comments »

With all the millions spent by Sheikh Mansour on his ‘project’ Manchester City, it was only a matter of time before his investment began to bear fruit on the field.

That said, there was still a reluctance – maybe almost disbelief – to consider them title challengers, given just a few years ago they were considered Premier League also-rans.

This was reflected in the premier league betting, with their bitter rivals Manchester United – perhaps by virtue of their greater experience – leading that particular field. Punters, used to the status quo of United dominance for so long, kept asking – could City actually do it?

On Sunday they got their answer.

City’s Old Trafford destruction of United could go down as one of the most pivotal and symbolic results in the division’s history.

The sheer amount of long-standing statistics blown away by Roberto Mancini’s men is alone enough to mark this game as one for the history books.

It was United’s biggest home defeat since 1955, the first time United had conceded six goals at home since 1930, their first loss at Old Trafford since April 2010 and first time since 1926 City had scored six in a Manchester derby.

Those looking to Bet on the Premier League can no longer ignore the noisy neighbours. The sheer manner of the way United – England’s dominating force for nearly 20 years – were swatted away by a free-flowing, skilful and ruthlessly clinical City side has rightly placed them as favourites to win the Premier League.

That will bring pressure of its own but such is the pace of City’s oil-fuelled revolution, these are no wide-eyed players thrust into the limelight for the first time, these are expensive, well-paid international stars used to the pressures of football at the very top.

True, there were always going to be question marks about how a team put together so quickly would gel, but the individuals are so good the collective doesn’t really matter – though if Sunday is anything to go by it seems Mancini has already managed to form City into a unit capable of challenging anyone, anywhere.

Perspective is needed – it is only October – and United have shown time and time again that they won’t be kept down for long. But the City ‘project’ is like no other seen in football before. The Sheikh will spend and spend and spend until he gets the glory he craves and no-one – not even Sir Alex Ferguson – looks like stopping him.

December 2009 wrap up

January 31st, 2010 by sean No comments »

We’re a bit late wrapping up December’s events but we’ve both talked via email and just haven’t had a chance to get blog posts up. To cut a long story short, i ended the month with a balance of over €240 and set a new record in the process :smile:

Since then, i’ve banked approx €350 and still have about €200 in my betfair account, so things are still going well :-)

Unfortunately, none of it is being recorded or means anything for my head to head battle with Enda. We’ve decided to change the rules for 2010 because it was just too time consuming to blog about every single bet we were placing.

It meant betting actually became a chore because we knew we had to bet AND then blog about it.. So stay tuned for then new rules. Once we get time to sit down and agree on them, we’ll be sure to let you know and we also have plans to revamp the site and get you guys more involved ;-)

Kauto star wins 4 King George Chase

December 26th, 2009 by enda No comments »

I put the remainder of my money on Kauto Star at 1.59 today. It’s a small profit but takes my balance back over €9 and gives me a fighting chance to pull myself back into profit over the next few days.

I would have banked already my money on him had I not got burned by Celtic last week. That’s my only really bad loss so far on lucky.ie. I’ll need to revise my tactics for the new year as I have not been dedicating enough time to the site and finding the right bets. i was convinced Celtic had no chance of coming back from 2 goals down away in Europe but I took on a bet that offered no value and it’s not my normal tactics. Sean’s run away with it this month but I’ve shown that I can comeback before and will give it my best shot before the end of 2009. €25 is a reasonable target for now though.

€200 mark SMASHED!

December 20th, 2009 by sean No comments »

This is an historic day on lucky.ie. My December 2009 balance stands at a whopping €207.19.

Rage Against the Machine have just been crowned Christmas no.1 and at the time it was announced, i was ‘all in’ on betfair with a balance of around €90. Enda has been destroyed this month and i end 2009 with a bang – earning more this month than my previous 4 months combined.

xfactor bets

It all started on Monday when i backed Joe to win with €50 at 1.27. Had i stuck with that original bet, my balance would now be about €40. But i didn’t. I changed my mind and did so about 10 times throughout the week.

I backed Joe, then backed Rage, then seriously considered redding out on both, then eventually went all in on rage. Crazy stuff. But it worked ;-) In total, i placed 19 bets on this market over 4 days, totalling €248.

I backed & layed for profit, i backed and layed for loss and eventually, to be perfectly honest, i didn’t know how much exactly i was going to win if RATM won. All i knew is that i had everything but €43 involved in this market and once the results were leaked i bet that €43 on Rage at 1.06 (which was obviously great value!).

I had worked out that i should have ended up with a balance of about €150, but couldn’t be sure – i had so many bets on the market that it was just too much hassle to work out exactly what i’d win or lose in different situations. So it was a nice surprise to log in and find my balance at over €200!!!!

At one stage RATM drifted to over 6.4 and you’ll see i placed a few bets at that amount. They never really dropped below odds of 3.00 until this morning when obviously people in the know started getting official figures. A few days ago, i also won a few quid when Everton lost 1-0 to BATE – i’d backed BATE with €5 at 4.7 (great odds) so i won about €14 on that.

dec 17th bets

So a massive win, a great day for me and a great day for lucky.ie – i’ve now set a new record balance and one that i think that will stand for a long time to come ;-) I may have lost the monthly head to head battles with Enda in 2009 (3-2), but after this month, i’ll end the year having earned way more profit :-)

I wonder if Enda will now do a Benitez and claim it’s not over until December 31st ;-) As things stand, there’s ONLY a €200 gap for him to close before the month’s end :mrgreen:

MASSIVE day on sunday

December 19th, 2009 by sean No comments »

Lets just say that if Rage Against the Machine are crowned Christmas no.1 this Sunday, i’ll have smashed all records on lucky.ie.

Maïa's Birthday
Creative Commons License photo credit: Valentin.Ottone

If Joe wins, i’m down a good chunk (i’ll have blown a lot of my hard work)… but i’ll still be in profit and i should still easily beat Enda this month now that he’s tried to mirror my tactics and got burned at the first attempt :mrgreen:

I have to say that was unlucky. Not sure what the odds were at 3-1 up (under 1.1 anyway) but betting against Celtic, away from home, in europe, when trailing by two goals isn’t exactly a silly thing to do. Had i been watching the match i may well have bet on it myself  and i’d have bet the same way Enda did.

So pure bad luck there, but that’s the risk you take when you place every single bet at low odds. It worked this month for me, but as Enda has proven, it can just as easily go wrong :smile:

Big loss last night

December 18th, 2009 by enda No comments »

Last night I lost €25 on one bet. Celtic were 3-1 down against Rapid Vienna. I lumped on Vienna in the hope of making a small profit of €1.50. Mug punter tactics that came back to bite me. I’m now down to just over €5 for my balance so it’ll be tough to mount a comeback from here. I wanted to get my balance to around €40 so I could lump on an even money in the hope to go over €80 at the last minute.

Anyway, a stupid bet has left be with slim chances to win this month. I’ll be going for a monster 20/1 accumulator now to try and take me over the €100 mark…. even though I don’t want to finish with a zero balance for the money. I can come back though.. do doubt about that!

running away with it

December 14th, 2009 by sean No comments »

Enda’s 3 month winning streak WILL be broken this month and in emphatic style. My new tactical approach to gambling is really paying off and right now my betfair balance stands at €77.34.

december 13th bets

Exactly 14 days ago, it stood at €20. So i’ve almost quadroupled it, with a bit of luck along the way but mainly thanks to discipline, structure and good judgement. My target for the month was to increase my balance by 5% per day, every day.

So far in December, i’ve increased it by almost 10% per day on average. It means i’m now just over €9 short of my target. When i reach my target i’ll be cashing out and banning myself from placing any more bets this month.

almost there

Snooker has proven to be a really strong area for me. In total, i’ve made €41.68 on it in the last 7 days (in the UK open). A large chunk of that was ‘accidentally’ won, but i’ve proven that wasn’t just a fluke by going on to win more with risky tactics.

In tonight’s final however, my tactics would have lost me everything had i been quicker to place a bet. Higgins needed a brown to win a frame and i placed €60 on him to win the frame at 1.02, meaning i’d win €1.20 if it went in. It was a straight forward brown which no professional should ever miss – i could have made it time and time again.

He did miss it much to my horror as my bet was just being processed as the ball bounced around in the jaws of the pocket. Luckily, because it was a ‘dead cert’, the odds shortened to 1.01, so my 1.02 bet wasn’t accepted, leaving me with literally a couple of seconds to cancel the bet… (otherwise it would have been automatically be accepted). Higgins eventually lost the frame meaning a 1.01 shot lost. Proving my tactics aren’t bulletproof.

But i knew that. Gambling is gambling. There are no certainties. The only thing that is certain is that you will lose if you keep gambling. But that’s what we’re trying to prove wrong of course here on lucky.ie.

Provided i hit my target this month, i’ll be in profit and placed hundreds of bets over a 5 month period – so too will Enda – which shows that you can defy the odds…

closing in on my target

December 11th, 2009 by sean No comments »

At the start of the month i set myself a target of changing €20 on betfair in to €86.44.

The biggest overall winning balance so far on lucky.ie has been €74.16, so if i can hit my target, i’ll have well and truely smashed Enda’s record. So far, my plan is working beautifully.

It requires nerves of steel but i’ve always been happy to take on big bets. In the last few days, the riskiest odds i’ve taken on have been 1.31 and i stuck €30 on that. It was on over 2.5 goals in the Barcelona -v- Dinamo Kiev match. I placed that bet when the match was 1-1 in the first half.

Easy money i thought because Kiev had to win by 3 goals to qualify for the champions league knock out stages and Barcelona are just Barcelona – they can’t play any other way than all out attack. But the game was really poor. Kiev were happy with a draw and Barcelona were happy just to knock it about and treat the match as a training session. So i was left sweating on this right up until the last 5 minutes until Messi scored a free kick.

That won me €9.30 but more importantly saved me from losing €30 :smile: Since then, i’ve been placing sensible bets at lower odds and they’re all coming in. Snooker mainly. One of these days i’ll get burned on snooker because the BBC keep changing schedules and cutting off midway through frames which means i lose my ability to predict how shots will go and am just left to make decisions based purely on the fluctuating odds.

Anyway, my new betfair balance is €64.95.

masterclass betting

Add my paddypower balance of €5.12 to that and it means i now have an overall balance of €70.07.

betting tactics

So i’m on course to hit my target of €86.44 on betfair and if all goes to plan i could well end the month with a balance of €90+. The stakes are very high now though. I’m reluctant to bet 100% of my balance on any one event, but i have to if i’m to hit my target whilst minimising the risk of losing. I look like a genius if i pull it off and everything goes to plan. If i bet my entire balance on a 1.01 shot that loses, then i look like a complete idiot :mrgreen:

Still, fortune favours the brave and i’m determined to crush Enda this month and lay down a marker for 2010.

pure luck

December 9th, 2009 by sean No comments »

Sticking to my new tactical approach, i tried placing several bets at 1.02, 1.03 today on snooker. I was just too slow placing them though and missed them.

So i thought i’d be clever and then placed a big €30 bet at 1.01 on Ronnie O Sullivan to win the 4th frame in his match against Peter Ebdon. I didn’t realise that when i confirmed the bet, it would be accepted at current odds (of 1.61), not at my odds (which were 1.01).

I thought that if i placed a bet at 1.01, the bet would be accepted if the odds fell to 1.01. If they didn’t fall to that, i’d get my money back. But i quickly learned that’s not how betfair works!!! I hit ‘confirm’ and the bet was accepted at odds of 1.61 – so the bet was accepted before the frame had started!! Disaster!

I didn’t have the liquidity to back out of it (as i’d place €30 of my €31 balance on this bet) and so had to watch from behind my fingers as the frame developed. I’d started this post before i knew the outcome of the frame because i suspected i’d lose – it would be typical.

O Sullivan won the first 3 frames of the match and was cruising, but it would have been typical if he’d lost the 4th frame just when i’d placed a banker bet on him (by accident). At one stage, Ebdon was about 1.25 to win the frame and i thought i was screwed… but thanks to honest sportsmanship (Ebdon called foul as he hit a red when leaning despite the fact nobody seen it) O Sullivan eventually went on to win.

dec 8th bets

So it means i profited by a huge €18+ on that frame alone which of course i’ll take all the credit for :mrgreen: I can say that i had anticipated O Sullivan winning, so that’s why i backed him rather than Ebdon but really, it was pure luck and i’m just relieved not to have lost anything – my tactics had been working superbly up until then and for a while it looked like i’d just shot myself in the foot and undone all my hard work with one lapse of concentration.
So a valuable lesson learned folks – you can only back at the current odds and can’t schedule bets below them.

I went on to place a few more bets. Won some, lost some and end the day with a betfair balance of €49.77. I do have to share a few tips though… in the lower league matches that were in play tonight i was looking for surefire wins.

So i was looking at live scores and searching for any side that was 2 goals up approaching injury time. I found a few of them and surprisingly, i found two teams that were 2 goals to the good available to back at 1.01 going in to injury time.

It’s hard to call 1.01 ‘value’ but in my opinion, that’s fantastic value. The chances of a side scoring two goals in injury time to draw level are extremely slim. Statistically, a 1.01 shot means it happens 1 in 100 times but i’d guess it happens maybe 1 in 1000 times, if even that.

I look at it as immediate 1% interest. It’s the closest thing to a sure win you’ll get in gambling. Place 100 of them in a month and you’ve just doubled your balance (assuming you win!). The law of averages will eventually catch you out once in a while but provided you’re not betting blindly on 1.01 shots, you shouldn’t get stung too often. I also noticed several value 1.02, 1.03 bets too. All in play and it’s really a case of speed and timing.

I did venture away from my new tactics today, but that was only for a bit of fun – because i was still buzzing from my fluke win earlier in the day :smile: I could probably batten down the hatches now and do ‘an Enda’ but i’m determined to go the whole hog and hit my target of €86.44 this month. Whilst i’ve probably done enough to win, i’m eager to end 2009 in style and beat Enda by as much as possible :smile: