2nd accumulator for sean

September 6th, 2009 by sean No comments »

These accumulators are good fun, but i’m still very sceptical about how profitable they are. For me, it’s always best to keep it simple and bet on one event at a time. That said, surely my accumulator today can’t fail…

tennisbet

I’ve backed Nadal, Serena Williams and Venus/Serena in a doubles match which all take place today (in the US open). Bet €1, get €1.17 back. Very low risk, but it will still be profit if it comes in. I’ll be happy to break even in these accumulators and then do the real damage on single events with betfair :mrgreen:

you’re not singing any more!

September 6th, 2009 by sean No comments »

I said yesterday i had a big money bet on Ireland & Scotland both winning. By pure coincidence Enda had bets on the same matches, so in a rare twist we were both hoping each others bets would come in :mrgreen:

My attacking philosophy has served me well up until now. I’ve been much more unpredictable than Enda which has been a good and bad thing but, at the end of the day, i won August’s battle and that was the only stat that really mattered last month.

Ok, on to the bet that will silence Enda’s fans… I placed €10 on Ireland / Scotland winning at odds of 3.77. So i won €27.70. HOWEVER, the reason i placed this bet was because i came across an offer that betfair were running; Stake a minimum of €10 on a multiple bet this weekend and get €5 back – win or lose.

multiple bets

That lured me in to the multiple market and even though i’d bet 50% of my balance, i’d only lose 25% of my balance had the bet gone wrong. So it was still a very risky move, but one that paid of big time!

So my balance is now €46.31 on betfair PLUS i’ll be getting another €5 added to my account this week because i took up this offer. So my balance will actually be over €51 thanks to this bet.

46.31

That’s more than my closing (and winning) balance for August, so i’ve got off to a flying start and have made Enda’s accumulator winnings look like peanuts :mrgreen: I also had the chance to lay off money once Ireland went 1-0 up (or even 2-1 up), but i was enjoying the match and didn’t want to get distracted betting so i didn’t lay anything off.

So right now, my balance is €46.31 and that’s what i’ll put it down as ‘officially’ but there will be €5 added to it this week :-) In other news, my first €1 accumulator bet with paddypower.com didn’t come in.

Italy won, Spain won, but Poland could only draw meaning i was close, but not close enough… and that’s the thing with accumulators – there’s just so many different possibilities and outcomes and even if you get the majority of them right, it only takes a minority of your selections to fail and ruin everything. So i lost €1 there, but i think i’ll go easy on myself for that ;-)

I’ll now have a €27+ cushion over Enda (once i get my €5 from betfair) after one day of betting, so if ever we’re gonna see Enda attack with force, it’s now. With 24 days left in september, he’ll need over €1 profit per day and have to hope i lose money too. So it’s looking good for me :twisted:

I won’t be shutting up shop for the month, but i will be taking it easy now i have such a huge cushion. With these new rules, i have to risk at least €4 on accumulators so i’ll try to get them out of the way as early as possible.

Profit on first bet

September 5th, 2009 by enda 3 comments »

I placed my first €1 accumulator bet on PaddyPower earlier and I’ve been successful.

ireland_scotland_charlton_treble_paddypower

I profited €3.95 on this bet but layed Ireland at 1.99 for €1 to loose 99 cents but insure that I broke even no matter what.

ireland_cyrus_laying

In hindsight, I probably should have guaranteed profit with the lay, but I was away from the computer during the Ireland game so had to lay out at high odds and I was reluctant to eat into my accumulator winnings as I was pretty confident on this one.

Sean has profited big today according to the comments on his most recent post. He reckons he’s sown it up for this month already and if he has then fair play. I’ve already decided I’ll never back to try and outdo Sean. Without devaluing our monthly competition, I know if I bet like this I’ll definitely loose.

Hopefully another month of slow and steady bets can see me turn a profit this month again. I placed some great bets in August without ever putting my bankroll in any great risk and I’ll be happy if I can do the same again this month. I won’t be getting carried away just yet though as we all know it’s very hard to beat the bookie. If either of us can turn a profit for 6 months or more then I might believe we can win at online gambling in the long term.

Thanks everyone for the votes last month! I might not have won it but at least I felt like the people’s champ :)

1st accumulator for sean

September 5th, 2009 by sean 5 comments »

As the new rules have changed this month, we must now place 5 x €1 bets on paddypower.com. This is gonna be very tough and i’ll be happy to break even as i’ve never had much luck with accumulators.

Anyway, here’s my first one… Poland / Italy / Spain. Looks good on paper but it’s never this easy…

paddypower 1st accumulator

I’m basically trying to limit my losses on these accumulators rather than back small at massive odds. All 3 of these sides are firm favorites going in to their matches so hopefully they all play well and win. Italy face Georgia away which won’t be easy. Spain face Belgium at home which should be an easy win. Poland face Northern Ireland at home which on paper looks like a home win, but Northern Ireland can be unpredictable and may well nick a draw.

Copying Enda’s Bet

September 5th, 2009 by sean 2 comments »

I won’t say how much i have on Scotland and Ireland winning tonight, but it’s a lot more than what Enda has on and it’s also an accumulator but not with paddypower.

I think Ireland are a fantastic price at 2.08 on betfair at the minute and i fully expect them to beat Cyprus, especially now that they’re without their man hitman up front (suspended). At home, Macedonia are dangerous, away from home anything less than a win won’t be accepted by Scottish fans so i’d tip an easy win for the Scottish.

So no matter what happens tonight, we’re both gonna win or lose money and one of us is gonna go ahead by a good bit… if Scotland and Ireland both win tonight, september could well be over for Enda :twisted:

P.S. although the title suggests otherwise, it was always my intention to bet on tonight’s internationals – at one stage i had a 7 team accumulator selected but then told myself to cop on, so i reduced it to just two matches.

September – Bet 1

September 5th, 2009 by enda 1 comment »

I’m getting in early with my first bet for this month with an accumulator bet on PaddyPower. I’ve choosen two international games. Ireland to avenge our horrid defeat to Cyprus a few years back and Scotland to recover from the thumping they got from Norway and beat Macedonia. My third selection is League 1 table toppers Charlton to continue their 100% record this season and beat Brentford * Note: I backed Charlton as an in-running bet 5 minutes into the match and posted immediately. As the rules state, I’ve placed my €1 bet and if successful the bet returns €4.95.

paddypower.com_accumulator_bet

I’ll be very busy this month so wanted to get off to an early start. Hopefully the quality of my bets from last month will continue and I have time to do my homework before rushing in.

September kicking off on Saturday

September 4th, 2009 by sean No comments »

Enda is busy moving over and settling in to a new job in England these days so i’m left holding the fort here until things settle down for him :smile: We’ve suspended all bets until this Saturday and the reason for that is because we were making some changes to the rules.

Here are the main changes;

  • Each player must place 5 x €1 accumulator bets every month on paddypower.com. Each accumulator bet must be comprised of at least 3 selections.
  • Any accumulator bet placed must be blogged about on lucky.ie BEFORE the accumulator event takes place to prevent cheating.
  • Profits or losses from our Betfair bets & Paddypower accumulator bets are combined.

So things start to get interesting now. Both of us will have to place 5  x €1 accumulator bets every month. Whilst Enda has had some success with accumulators in the past, i’m sure he’ll agree that they’re the most difficult type of bet to pull off consistently and make profit from.

Backing 3 odds on favourite teams for example is almost betting suicide as very rarely will all 3 win. At the same time, backing 3 underdogs is even more unlikely to come in… so this will really test our knowledge and luck…

Anyway, we’ve both agreed to start September’s lucky.ie battle this Saturday (September 5th) at 00:00. I’ll be aiming to defend my August title and Enda will be eager to get his first win under his belt.

In other news, i had the pleasure of cashing out over €30 pure profit in to my bank account this morning from my August winnings :smile: My balance is back down to €20, so it’s up to me to repeat what  i did last month.

August 2009 Player of the Month

September 2nd, 2009 by sean No comments »

Although less than €1 seperated us in the end, i’ve still won and that’s what the record books will show. Sean is officially the August 2009 Player of the Month on lucky.ie.

Sunset and you
Creative Commons License photo credit: titlap

Enda’s gamesmanship in the dying minutes almost worked and the thought had crossed my mind that he was bluffing when he said he was leading, but i figured he had gotten to within €5 of me so he may well have stuck €5 on someone, got lucky and passed the €60 mark.

So i had to take it at face value and hunt for bets… nothing was in play, so i turned to exchange games and ended up losing €7. I was incredibly unlucky there by the way – two losing hands in a row despite being odds on favourites to win.

But Enda couldn’t produce profit and ended up losing a bit and that ‘bit’ is what has ultimately cost him victory.

So a dramatic finish to the month which temporarily saw the €60 mark broken but in the end the winning balance is €50.58 and if i can repeat that every month, i’ll be delighted.

Having gone 1-0 up, Enda will be eager to level things in September but i’m equally as determined to punish him for his late antics this month and make it 2-0 :-)

We’ve both suspended our betting on lucky.ie until this weekend as we’re putting together a new / updated set of rules which will make things even more exciting.

So we’ll lose a few days in September, but we’re both happy to take a time out and we both agree it will be much more interesting and challenging this month once the rules are changed….

last ditch attack from sean fails

September 1st, 2009 by sean 2 comments »

Having heard Enda was ahead, i made a last ditch attempt to over take him and started betting on exchange poker. Purely a percentage game – i was betting based on numbers and under severe pressure so i needed to react quicky and call cards good or bad in seconds.

I got up to over €61 at one stage but eventually dropped back to €50.58, so i finished August with €50.58, dropping €7 from just half an hour ago :smile:

Still, over €50 is quite an achievement even if it’s not enough to seal victory!

Update: it is enough to seal victory! The winner of the first lucky.ie battle is Sean!

Chin chin
Creative Commons License photo credit: Abi Skipp

My closing balance is €49.95

August 31st, 2009 by enda 3 comments »

One thing I decided on early on in August was that I’d finish all bets and disclose my balance at exactly 11:59 on the 31st of the month. I’m currently still playing poker (and have been since 8pm tonight) and will update this post in 7 minutes time. Drum role please….

Update @ 00:00 – Sorry Sean, I had to have some fun there and play a few minds games. My balance is €49.95, so I’m declaring you the winner alright :)

If anyone has actually bothered to tune in tonight our posts might look a bit messy as in fair play we both wanted to post around/before 12 o’clock so that there’s no sneaky bets going in after midnight. Sean made the mistake of posting his balance at around 11pm so this gave me the opportunity to try and psyche him out with a few comments. To be honest, I was pushing in and around the €50 mark at the time and I was 99% sure he’d take the bait. Very sorry Sean, but I did have great fun tonight doing this and it would have been a very low blow if I’d bypassed you this way. You did mention mind game in your profile page at the beginning of the month so I thought I’d oblige. I was trying a Keane/Viera tunnel incident and it didn’t work for me. I came close though, but I’m glad you’ve stayed above the €50 mark and are the rightful winner. Congratulations!

Right, on to my bets for today. I nearly wasn’t going to bet at all today as I just couldn’t see anything that interested me. Like Sean, I thought Newcastle would win but I wasn’t prepared to risk my balance. I was so happy to reach the €50 mark this month that there was no way I was blowing it (unfortunately, I had a bit of trouble with the dollar/euro conversion at the betfair poker tables tonight while rushing to post at the last minute and I’ve come up 5 cents short :) I can live with that though). I had a 68 cent bet on a horse that Frankie Detorri was on earlier. Totally uneducated guesswork that didn’t pay off (as I said I didn’t see anything I fancied and I was only gambling here). This left my balance at exactly €50 and I nearly left it at that!

poker_horse_racing

I then spent the rest of my day on the Betfair poker tables but couldn’t really make a move. I blew €1.95 on a $2.50+$0.25 NL Hold’em game which left me below the €50 mark and I wasn’t happy with myself. I said earlier in the month that I wouldn’t play another cash poker game but I figured it was a low risk strategy that ‘might’ get me close to Sean’s starting balance. He said earlier himself that it was hard to find bets today, so I was figuring he wouldn’t get too far past his starting balance today. The cash game worked out not too bad for me and I did hover around the €52 mark for a while at about 10.30pm tonight. I played right up to 23.58 though and here’s the screenshot to prove it.

poker_patience_discipline

You’ll also notice that I’ve sat through 232 hands at this stage (I’m a lightweight, so I’m shattered now). I never really took any massive risks at the poker table tonight although I was prepared to go all in with Ace/King, KK or AA to try and hit around the €55 mark (I didn’t get the cards though). I just never felt it today, and I suppose I should have ensured that I bypassed Sean with my Treble yesterday (that was a bit of an oversight).

Sean is the deserved winner! He really went for it all month long. I have been more cautious and I’m not afraid to admit; if I’d gone ahead I’d probably have stopped betting until Sean caught up. The key thing for me was to make profit and keep my discipline. I’ll not say I didn’t try to win it today but I just wasn’t prepared to risk my bankroll on the last day. Sean was, and proved it right up to the very last seconds, so you have to admire him.

I know he really wanted to win and it was mean of me to taunt him with false claims of victory but that’s sport for you! Well done Sean and let the games begin for September again!