Archive for the ‘Strategy’ category

Moyes confident of building on win

August 23rd, 2012

Everton boss David Moyes is hopeful his side can avoid their traditional early season troubles and make continue their strong start to the new campaign.

The Toffees are famous for their slow starts and have often missed out on European football due to their poor early season form which often sees them at the bottom end of the table following the opening few rounds of fixture.

Their inconsistency has led to Moyes trying a whole host of different methods to change their fortunes and admits he has once again made a number of tweaks to their pre-season preparations over the last couple of months.

However, he believes what will be more significant in the opening months, will be the influx of new stars into his squad following the signings of two potential key players, in Steven Pienaar and Steven Naismith.

The Scottish boss has often struggled to bring fresh blood to Goodison Park in the last few years due to the club’s difficult financial situation.

Everton overcame probably the toughest possible start to the season when they shocked many who bet on sport with a 1-0 win against Manchester United on Monday, but Moyes is confident the new signings can help get his side off to a flyer.

“Over the years we have had many strange starts to the season, mainly not particularly good ones, but you can’t dismiss where we tend to finish,” Moyes told news sport networks.

“Where we tend to finish is where most people and pundits would probably put Everton.

“We will try to get off to a good start and try to be up at the top if we can but the opposition we have got are very hard.

“I was excited with the way we finished last season and I have roughly the same team and that gives me good optimism,” he added.

Sunderland Clinch Crucial Saha Deal

August 18th, 2012
Sunderland may have pulled off one of the signings of the English summer by clinching the services of experienced striker, Louis Saha, on a free transfer.
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The well-travelled Frenchman arrives at the Stadium of Light after his release from his short-term stint with Tottenham last season. The forward enjoyed an impressive stay at White Hart Lane during the second half of the season, proving he is still a very capable finisher at the highest level.
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The former Everton, Manchester United, and Newcastle star will not only bring his experience of Premier League football to his new club, but also Saha is still one of the smartest strikers in the business.
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Sunderland manager, Martin O’Neill, has admitted that he is delighted to have secured the services of the France international, making it clear to news soccer reporters that Saha would have a big role to play for the team, as they look to make the next step up in the Premier League.
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“Louis is a striker whose abilities have been proven at the very highest level, and he brings with him a raft of experience of top-flight football,” O’Neill said.
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“I’m sure he will be a great addition to our squad in an area we recognise needs strengthening, and I’m delighted we have been able to complete the deal ahead of our first game of the season.”
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Saha is only the second new face to have arrived at the club during the close season, and O’Neill will be well aware that he needs to bring in another couple of players if he is going to be able to challenge for a place in the top half of this season’s Premier League table.
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Thinking of betting on soccer this summer? Visit the Bet365 website for the latest odds on the Premier League, as well as the Spanish La Liga and the Australian A-League.

Bellamy’s Premier League challenge

July 26th, 2012

With Craig Bellamy possibly set to leave Liverpool after his Olympic exploits with Team GB this summer, Queens Park Rangers have reportedly joined the race to sign the veteran striker.

At 33 years of age, many members of the Betfair football community were presuming the Welshman would again return home and see out the rest of his career at the Cardiff City Stadium.

But a recent claim by QPR vice-chairman Amit Bhatia that the London club is also interested has thrown speculation over Bellamy’s future wide open.

For Rangers can offer something Cardiff cannot: Premier League football.

Bellamy has never been a man to step down from a challenge, and is widely known to face criticism full in the face rather than shy away.

He continues to be a quality striker even though age is catching up with him, and is seen as vital to the working of Team GB’s football performances this summer.

It is a sure thing that Bellamy, who is rated highly by football pundit Lee Dixon, would be tempted to go another couple of seasons in the English top flight.

His previous experiences at Cardiff could in fact prove detrimental to any decision to join the Bluebirds.

For Bellamy was so good against lowly Championship opposition two seasons ago, any move to South Wales would only serve as another easy challenge.

The Championship is not a test for someone of Bellamy’s quality and mental determination.

The striker scored 11 goals for Cardiff over the 2010/11 season when on loan from Liverpool, and has nothing more to prove in that division.

But, being phased out at Anfield, he still has something to prove in the Premier League.

Expect a tough battle between QPR and Cardiff for the player’s signature should Reds boss Brendan Rodgers see fit to sell him.

Certainly the Olympics may prove as a benchmark for which direction Bellamy’s career is heading.

Mattocks continues to shine

July 23rd, 2012

While there weren’t many positives to be taken from the Vancouver Whitecaps’ heartbreaking 3-2 defeat to rivals Toronto FC, although Darren Mattocks once again added a silver-lining to the team’s troubles as they aim to defy online bets and odds and find their form.

The Jamaican striker grabbed his side’s two goals at BMO Field, taking his tally in his rookie MLS season to six. It was the second goal from the youngster that really caught the eye, with Mattocks seemingly leaping above Toronto defender Logan Emory to head home a late equaliser.

While the goal wasn’t enough to see the Whitecaps come away from the match with any points, it did prove just what an exciting talent head coach Martin Rennie has on his hands.

Often prone to moments of erratic behaviour, Mattocks has already shown in his short career to date that he is something a bit special, with the striker now in with a chance of reaching double figures for goals in his rookie season, a very rare feat in the MLS.

“He’s a fantastic young player who can be a big star if he keeps working at it,” Rennie said.

“He’s got lots of areas to improve on his game but he’s got that finishing touch and that pace and movement that teams fear playing against and we love having.”

Rennie will need to carefully manage to colourful striker over the next few months, with Mattocks already missing two games this season with suspension, as well as the opening eight weeks when he suffered cooking burns.

If Mattocks, who features prominently in live in-play betting markets, can continue to improve as he has been doing over recent months, then the Whitecaps could have a player capable of taking the club to the next level.

pure luck

December 9th, 2009

Sticking to my new tactical approach, i tried placing several bets at 1.02, 1.03 today on snooker. I was just too slow placing them though and missed them.

So i thought i’d be clever and then placed a big €30 bet at 1.01 on Ronnie O Sullivan to win the 4th frame in his match against Peter Ebdon. I didn’t realise that when i confirmed the bet, it would be accepted at current odds (of 1.61), not at my odds (which were 1.01).

I thought that if i placed a bet at 1.01, the bet would be accepted if the odds fell to 1.01. If they didn’t fall to that, i’d get my money back. But i quickly learned that’s not how betfair works!!! I hit ‘confirm’ and the bet was accepted at odds of 1.61 – so the bet was accepted before the frame had started!! Disaster!

I didn’t have the liquidity to back out of it (as i’d place €30 of my €31 balance on this bet) and so had to watch from behind my fingers as the frame developed. I’d started this post before i knew the outcome of the frame because i suspected i’d lose – it would be typical.

O Sullivan won the first 3 frames of the match and was cruising, but it would have been typical if he’d lost the 4th frame just when i’d placed a banker bet on him (by accident). At one stage, Ebdon was about 1.25 to win the frame and i thought i was screwed… but thanks to honest sportsmanship (Ebdon called foul as he hit a red when leaning despite the fact nobody seen it) O Sullivan eventually went on to win.

dec 8th bets

So it means i profited by a huge €18+ on that frame alone which of course i’ll take all the credit for :mrgreen: I can say that i had anticipated O Sullivan winning, so that’s why i backed him rather than Ebdon but really, it was pure luck and i’m just relieved not to have lost anything – my tactics had been working superbly up until then and for a while it looked like i’d just shot myself in the foot and undone all my hard work with one lapse of concentration.
So a valuable lesson learned folks – you can only back at the current odds and can’t schedule bets below them.

I went on to place a few more bets. Won some, lost some and end the day with a betfair balance of €49.77. I do have to share a few tips though… in the lower league matches that were in play tonight i was looking for surefire wins.

So i was looking at live scores and searching for any side that was 2 goals up approaching injury time. I found a few of them and surprisingly, i found two teams that were 2 goals to the good available to back at 1.01 going in to injury time.

It’s hard to call 1.01 ‘value’ but in my opinion, that’s fantastic value. The chances of a side scoring two goals in injury time to draw level are extremely slim. Statistically, a 1.01 shot means it happens 1 in 100 times but i’d guess it happens maybe 1 in 1000 times, if even that.

I look at it as immediate 1% interest. It’s the closest thing to a sure win you’ll get in gambling. Place 100 of them in a month and you’ve just doubled your balance (assuming you win!). The law of averages will eventually catch you out once in a while but provided you’re not betting blindly on 1.01 shots, you shouldn’t get stung too often. I also noticed several value 1.02, 1.03 bets too. All in play and it’s really a case of speed and timing.

I did venture away from my new tactics today, but that was only for a bit of fun – because i was still buzzing from my fluke win earlier in the day :smile: I could probably batten down the hatches now and do ‘an Enda’ but i’m determined to go the whole hog and hit my target of €86.44 this month. Whilst i’ve probably done enough to win, i’m eager to end 2009 in style and beat Enda by as much as possible :smile:

nabbed some x factor profit

November 1st, 2009

Tonight, Lloyd and Rachel were in the bottom two and faced a sing off to stay. One of them had to be elimated.

I knew that IF it went to a deadlock (where all judges couldn’t decide) Rachel would lose on a public vote having been in the bottom two already, twice… That said Llyod’s voice was gone and he could barely sing…

He was odds on favourite to go and i bought in at just the right time – when he hit rock bottom odds…. i layed him to go at 1.27 and simon cowel had the deciding vote. He had the power to send lloyd home or level the judges votes at 2-2 and leave the decision in the public’s hands.

xfactor

As i half suspected, he bottled it and took the safe option of letting it go to a public vote. I watch in delight as the odds started dancing and flip flopping – over €250,000 was bet on this market so a lot of people got burned on this one…

Thankfully i didn’t and i stuck €5 on that lay at 1.27, so i’m up €5 profit :-)

It means i’ve made over €10 profit today and put a healthy distance between myself and Enda on day 1 of November. He’ll be FORCED to bet this month, unlike last month where he could put his feet up, safe in the knowledge i’d need to get very lucky to beat him.

Closing balance is €23

November 1st, 2009

Is it enough? I only placed 2 more bets this week and my closing balance is €23. Sean had enough opportunities to come back yesterday so we’ll have to wait and see but I wouldn’t be surprised if he came back.

Here’s my 2 loosing bets since my last post:

I placed 34 cents on the Spurs – Everton game finishing 2-2. At 22/1 I thought it was worth a punt but no joy:

spurs_everton_2_each

My next bet was on Blackburn Rovers to beat Man Utd yesterday. This was a great value bet as I got Blackburn at odds of 24/1 on Friday. Yeah I fancied United to win this game but if Blackburn score first or even if it’s nil-nil at 70 minutes I can lay this one off to guarantee profit. I tried laying it at 5.9 but it was picked up so I’m down 72 cents on this one. Blackburn are dismal at the minute but United aren’t playing well and with Giggs, Fletcher, Rio and Vidic all out this was a value bet:

united_blackburn_bet

So that’s me down €2 for the month but I decided to cut my loses and see if Sean could come back like I did last month. I’ve bet a lot more than I normally did just to get myself up to the €25 limit but sometimes you have to use tactics. I said before I wouldn’t bet according to what Sean did but I had to break my rules here to make it as hard for him as possible. I’ll be surprised if he didn’t gamble big to try and get back into it so he might surprise us. Fulham at 3/1 at home against a Liverpool side missing Gerrard would have been on my accumulator anyway.

Betting on the x factor…

October 25th, 2009

Last night I watched the X Factor and saw Lloyd do his backflip and decided that he was a cert to stay in as this would gain him loads of votes with teenage girls. I layed him at 7.0 for €2, risking €12 of my kitty. My reason for this is that I was sure he’d stay in and I wanted to rapidly increase the amount I’d bet so far this month. However, his odds started dropping hevily today so I decided to lay two other competitors (John & Edward and Rachel).

xfactor_betting_week3

In doing this I’d only loose €8 instead of €12 if Lloyd went out, I also backed Lloyd to go out

backed_lloyd_xfactor_betting

(I know this sounds dumb), but the last thing I wanted was to let Sean back in to it easily so I was willing to spread the loss across all 3 acts.
This left me with a small lose if any of these three went out, but it was a loss I was willing to take. Amazingly I was guaanteed a €1 profit as none of the acts ended up in the bottom 2 :) When this happened, I decided to give up my profit on Miss Frank who were favourites to go out and bank on Danyl going out to win me €5. Unfortunately, Miss Frank went out but I still managed to profit 34 cents. I’m happy enough with this as I thought I’d be loosing about €3 on this!

I had one more bet today also. I did a 28 cent forecast on Valencia to score first and United to beat Liverpool 2-1.

valencia_scorecast

At odds of 95/1, this would have netted me €26 for a very small bet. Scorecasts are damn near impossible but I thought it was worth a punt.

Here’s all my betsfor today:

all_bets

I’ve now bet over the €25 kitty for this month and I’m reluctant to bet until I see if Sean can pass me. I will go for one for bet next weekened to try and go over the €30 mark. I’m down 96 cents so far and I went a bad mad today with some bets I normally wouldn’t go for but I’ve now bet my quota and was able to do so without risking too much. I’ll be trying hard to find a good bet next weekend to take me over the €30 mark!

One last bet

October 1st, 2009

I’ve said a couple of times this week that I was happy enough to finish the month with over €50. I also said during my good run of bets last week that a target of €75 was not beyond my reach. Although I’ve said that I wouldn’t be placing another bet this week, I already had a bet in place since Sunday evening. I backed a six way accumulator on betfair at odds of 8.49 with a stake of €3.10.

last_multiple_this_month

Before tonight’s Champions League games I have 3 teams up Man City, Sevilla and Arsenal. Tonight I was waiting on Man United, Real Madrid and Chelsea. I’ve prepared this post early today, if it comes in I might jut have snatched victory from Sean at the last minute if not my balance is €49 (not the €50 I expected before last night’s attempt to gain another €4+. I’m not sure Sean will hold off betting tonight but if he does and doesn’t win and my bet comes in I think I’ll just about bypass him. I won’t be counting my chickens though until I see what happens in tonight’s games. Chelsea, United and Real Madrid are all big favourites but that doesn’t mean anything! Even if this bet does come good, if Sean wins even €1 more than his current balance, he’ll beat me to it anyway. See the outcome below:

*** Update at around midnight:
My 6 team accumulator came good so I profited €22.06 on a €3.10 stake for a total return of €25.16. That leaves my closing balance at €74.16 for the month. That’s a total profit of €49.16 by betting only €41.44. Considering I layed off a lot of money in one night, I could have had an even better ratio than this.

I’ve passed Sean’s starting total for today but I wonder have I done enough? Sean didn’t think I stood a chance so it was a great comeback no matter what happens!

discipline the key to success

August 28th, 2009

Whilst it’s all very well and good placing bets, there is risk attached to every single bet i place.

It was always my intention to race ahead of Enda early in the month and then drop anchors and wait for him to catch up.

Spreeblicks Fail-Anchor
Creative Commons License photo credit: derSven ¶

That puts a lot of psychological pressure on him because when he’s placing bets, he’ll know in the back of his mind not only does he have to profit, he has to catch up with me and so if he happens to lose bets, he might get desperate for profit and lose his composure.

So right now, my discipline is being tested. For me, it’s simply a case of not betting until Sunday or Monday when august ends and when i see how Enda has got on trying to catch up.

I’m hoping Enda will bet and lose this weekend or not move at all. I have a big enough cushion to feel safe. I know that he MUST place bets and realistically he must gamble at relatively large odds to win.

Even if he was to put his entire bank of €41 on a 1.35 shot, it wouldn’t be enough to secure victory. So he’s under pressure to find value bets and make sure they win.

I have the luxury of watching what happens to Enda along with you guys. 20 of you have backed him to win for whatever reason, so if he loses, he’ll not be the only one with egg on his face :mrgreen: