Archive for the ‘Stats’ category

Lightning let Kubina leave

February 19th, 2012

Tampa Bay Lightning have allowed Pavel Kubina to join the Philadelphia Flyers while Jon Kalinski has moved in the opposite direction – an interesting development for those looking to bet on hockey.

Lightning also allowed Dominic Moore to join the San Jose Sharks earlier in the week, but General Manager Steve Yzerman is pleased with the departures, saying: “We have more tradeable assets. It also gives us more flexibility at the draft either to move up or move back. It’s really draft-day decisions.”

Tampa Bay, who are on the fringes of the playoff race, could add some depth to their squad before the trade deadline on 27th February.

Yzerman added: “I’m not going to go out and start trading these seconds to get back a defenseman. I’m not going to do that. But if this group continues to win and play, I’ll let them keep going.”

Kalinski, 24, has played 22 NHL games with the Flyers while Kubina first joined Tampa Bay in 1996.

The 34-year-old went on to play for Toronto Maple Leafs and Atlanta Thrashers before returning to the Lightning in 2010. The Czech Republic international played a key role in Tampa Bay’s Stanley Cup success in 2004.

Meanwhile, Mattias Ohlund, who has not played this season, will have surgery on his left knee in an attempt to save his career.

The 35-year-old, who still has four years and $11.75million left on his contract, had surgery last summer but has been unable to skate since mid November; those watching live hockey online are waiting for his return.

The Swede, who has been with Tampa Bay since 2009, previously starred for Vancouver Canucks where he spent 11 years.

November out…

November 30th, 2009

Today I bet a final €16.40 on a horse race, this was a mixture of backing and laying and I didn’t won or loose but it gets me over my betting quota for the month

horse_racing_bet

I’ve now bet over my €25 this month (€35.60 in fact) and my closing balance is €21.29. It’s now over to Sean to see if he can mount a come back. Very negative from me again but at the minute I’m in the lead. Sean came back from 20 cents in his betfair account earlier this month. Can he do it again?

Closing balance is €23

November 1st, 2009

Is it enough? I only placed 2 more bets this week and my closing balance is €23. Sean had enough opportunities to come back yesterday so we’ll have to wait and see but I wouldn’t be surprised if he came back.

Here’s my 2 loosing bets since my last post:

I placed 34 cents on the Spurs – Everton game finishing 2-2. At 22/1 I thought it was worth a punt but no joy:

spurs_everton_2_each

My next bet was on Blackburn Rovers to beat Man Utd yesterday. This was a great value bet as I got Blackburn at odds of 24/1 on Friday. Yeah I fancied United to win this game but if Blackburn score first or even if it’s nil-nil at 70 minutes I can lay this one off to guarantee profit. I tried laying it at 5.9 but it was picked up so I’m down 72 cents on this one. Blackburn are dismal at the minute but United aren’t playing well and with Giggs, Fletcher, Rio and Vidic all out this was a value bet:

united_blackburn_bet

So that’s me down €2 for the month but I decided to cut my loses and see if Sean could come back like I did last month. I’ve bet a lot more than I normally did just to get myself up to the €25 limit but sometimes you have to use tactics. I said before I wouldn’t bet according to what Sean did but I had to break my rules here to make it as hard for him as possible. I’ll be surprised if he didn’t gamble big to try and get back into it so he might surprise us. Fulham at 3/1 at home against a Liverpool side missing Gerrard would have been on my accumulator anyway.

September 2009 – Week 3 Review – Sean

September 22nd, 2009

This was probably my quietest week ever on lucky.ie. I placed just one bet – a high risk €5 lay against the champions league elite and i gained €5.

I’m so far ahead of Enda it would be foolish of me to play recklessly. I’m delighted with my total of €74.91 so far from an initial balance of €25. If i freeze my betting, i can cash out €50 for myself this month which would be very nice ;-)

I still have to place 2 more €1 accumulator bets, but there’s no rush… i’m confident month 2 is over and that i’ll retain my crown as no.1 here on lucky.ie for the second consecutive month.

September 2009 – Week 2 Review – Enda

September 14th, 2009

Not much action from me this week I had a high risk accumulator and then a winning treble so a loss of €1 and a win of €9.45.

I then went for a monster 28/1 shot yesterday and lost €1.

Overall for the week though I’ve profited with my Paddy Power treble on Liverpool, Limavady and Sunderland so a nice profit this week. I’m finding it hard to get time to post on here but hopefully I get busy next weekend and also get in early with a few bets and possibly bet my entire kitty for the weekend.

I’ll need to address the issue of finding time to post on here as I want to contiunue working on this site. Placing the bets is easy. Selecting the bets and finding the time to post them on here is the tough bit :)

September 2009 – Week 2 Review – Sean

September 13th, 2009

My 3 team accumulator from yesterday didn’t come in. Celtic were the side that let me down as they only drew at home. The other two won. Frustrated again by an accumulator. However, i had placed a sneaky €2 on over 2.5 goals in the Man City – Arsenal match.

That match finished with 6 goals, so i won €1.84 which erased the pain and financial loss of my accumulator. Today, i was watching the Italian Grand Prix and layed against hamilton to lead on the first lap. He *almost* lost it going in to the first corner but held on and had manufactured a nice lead for himself.

bets 13th september

Although this was a very tactical race, i backed Hamilton with €10 at odds of 2.2. That quickly fell as he raced ahead and built up a big gap. I then layed him at 1.67 with €10.50 – turning out to be a smart move as his price went back out from then on.

Hamilton was beaten by the tactical prowess of the Brawn team, so i was relieved i didn’t just let that €10 i had on him ride out to the end ;-) So i total, i finish the day with a betfair balance of €66.99. Normally, i do stand by my big bets but i had a bad feeling about backing hamilton today so that’s why i layed him and didn’t stand by today’s bet.

This is where it comes in handy not having a betting ‘policy’. I know Enda seems to lay everything to safeguard profit which you can’t say is a bad thing. But i just do what i feel is right and if i think a side will win or someone will lose, i won’t try to green out unless i just have a bad feeling about something..

My paddypower balance is now €3.17, so my overall balance is now €70.16. I’m now past the €70 mark for the first time ever. September just gets better and better for me and i’m enjoying my betting right now – sure, i lose some but more often than not i always seem to sneak in more profit than loss so it’s all good.

We’re almost half way through September now and Enda will have to double his balance to win (as things stand). So the ball is very much in his court. I’ve said earlier in the month i won’t be gambling big time – there’s no point. I will place the odd bet on events i’m watching but i’ll be keeping a close eye on Enda’s bets rather than my own. There’s a time to attack and there’s a time to defend. Now is the time to defend.

My closing balance is €49.95

August 31st, 2009

One thing I decided on early on in August was that I’d finish all bets and disclose my balance at exactly 11:59 on the 31st of the month. I’m currently still playing poker (and have been since 8pm tonight) and will update this post in 7 minutes time. Drum role please….

Update @ 00:00 – Sorry Sean, I had to have some fun there and play a few minds games. My balance is €49.95, so I’m declaring you the winner alright :)

If anyone has actually bothered to tune in tonight our posts might look a bit messy as in fair play we both wanted to post around/before 12 o’clock so that there’s no sneaky bets going in after midnight. Sean made the mistake of posting his balance at around 11pm so this gave me the opportunity to try and psyche him out with a few comments. To be honest, I was pushing in and around the €50 mark at the time and I was 99% sure he’d take the bait. Very sorry Sean, but I did have great fun tonight doing this and it would have been a very low blow if I’d bypassed you this way. You did mention mind game in your profile page at the beginning of the month so I thought I’d oblige. I was trying a Keane/Viera tunnel incident and it didn’t work for me. I came close though, but I’m glad you’ve stayed above the €50 mark and are the rightful winner. Congratulations!

Right, on to my bets for today. I nearly wasn’t going to bet at all today as I just couldn’t see anything that interested me. Like Sean, I thought Newcastle would win but I wasn’t prepared to risk my balance. I was so happy to reach the €50 mark this month that there was no way I was blowing it (unfortunately, I had a bit of trouble with the dollar/euro conversion at the betfair poker tables tonight while rushing to post at the last minute and I’ve come up 5 cents short :) I can live with that though). I had a 68 cent bet on a horse that Frankie Detorri was on earlier. Totally uneducated guesswork that didn’t pay off (as I said I didn’t see anything I fancied and I was only gambling here). This left my balance at exactly €50 and I nearly left it at that!

poker_horse_racing

I then spent the rest of my day on the Betfair poker tables but couldn’t really make a move. I blew €1.95 on a $2.50+$0.25 NL Hold’em game which left me below the €50 mark and I wasn’t happy with myself. I said earlier in the month that I wouldn’t play another cash poker game but I figured it was a low risk strategy that ‘might’ get me close to Sean’s starting balance. He said earlier himself that it was hard to find bets today, so I was figuring he wouldn’t get too far past his starting balance today. The cash game worked out not too bad for me and I did hover around the €52 mark for a while at about 10.30pm tonight. I played right up to 23.58 though and here’s the screenshot to prove it.

poker_patience_discipline

You’ll also notice that I’ve sat through 232 hands at this stage (I’m a lightweight, so I’m shattered now). I never really took any massive risks at the poker table tonight although I was prepared to go all in with Ace/King, KK or AA to try and hit around the €55 mark (I didn’t get the cards though). I just never felt it today, and I suppose I should have ensured that I bypassed Sean with my Treble yesterday (that was a bit of an oversight).

Sean is the deserved winner! He really went for it all month long. I have been more cautious and I’m not afraid to admit; if I’d gone ahead I’d probably have stopped betting until Sean caught up. The key thing for me was to make profit and keep my discipline. I’ll not say I didn’t try to win it today but I just wasn’t prepared to risk my bankroll on the last day. Sean was, and proved it right up to the very last seconds, so you have to admire him.

I know he really wanted to win and it was mean of me to taunt him with false claims of victory but that’s sport for you! Well done Sean and let the games begin for September again!

Sean finishes august with €57.58

August 31st, 2009

I’ve been in the driving seat for the majority of the month and the past week or so has been no different. I opened up a €13+ lead over Enda and he somehow managed to get it back to under €5.

So i was forced in to betting again as i wasn’t comfortable with that lead. To cut a long story short, i ended up reducing my lead to just a couple of euro late last night.

In a bid to recover, i lost more today on womens football. At one stage my balance stood at €43.96. Today was an awful day for betting in that choice was really limited. There wasn’t much football on and all the decent tennis matches will run in to the early hours, so i couldn’t bet on them..

I picked out newcastle at 1.9 as a value bet against leicester. Stuck €13.96 on them meaning if they failed to win, my balance would go down to just €30 for the month.

At half time it was 0-0 and not looking good but i kept the faith and was rewarded. Newcastle won the match 1-0 and i didn’t lay off any money, so i profited by €12.56.

That took my balance to over €56 and just now i’m after taking my balance to €57.58 by betting on the closing stages of a tennis match.

profit august final total

So that’s me done for August. I’m not sure how Enda has done, but i’m very happy with my overall tally. I have the champagne on ice here as i await Enda’s total balance….

statistical breakdown of my bets

August 26th, 2009

I’m just after gathering some stats for my august betting so far and they make for interesting reading;

Athletics: €1.79 (3 bets)
Gaelic Games: €2.05 (1 bet)
Golf: -€10.17 (15 bets)
Soccer: €15.52 (119 bets)
Special Bets: €0.09 (1 bet)
Tennis: €26.38 (35 bets)
Total P&L: €35.66 (174 bets)

So my biggest winner was tennis, followed by soccer. I’ve placed a massive 174 bets in total, so on average each bet has won me 20c.

I’ve bet over €824.32 to win €35.66 which means i’ve earned roughly €1 for every €23 i’ve risked. If we compare that to Enda’s stats so far, he’s earned roughly €1 for every €1.96 he’s risked which is an incredible stat.

So you can look at this two ways;

  • I’m lucky and playing a very high risk strategy which will inevitably end in tears.
  • I’m smart in my betting because obviously if i’ve placed 174 bets, you’d assume i’d go bankrupt if i’m risking €23 to earn €1 on average (given the fact my starting balance was €20).

Personally, i’m not too concerned about stats when i’m winning and in the lead. If i lose next month, i’ll compare my stats to Enda’s again and see if i can change anything…. but for now, it’s looking like victory for me in August and the stat that matters most is in my favour :mrgreen:

I’ve achieved a 176% ROI, Enda has achieved a 108% ROI on our starting balance of €20. However, the month isn’t over yet, Enda could still lose everything in a last ditch attempt to overtake me :smile:

August 2009 – Week 4 Review – Sean

August 24th, 2009

Week 3 ended in disaster for me. I lost pretty much everything i’d earned up until then when tiger woods let me down. I said that i must turn a profit this week and that’s exactly what i’ve done. In fact, i’m almost up to the €40 mark again.

It started off with a big win of €9.94 when arsenal beat celtic. I also scooped €7.28 the same night on a Chelsea / Sunderland match. That was followed up by a big €16.62 loss when Man Utd failed to beat Burnley.

My laying has let me down in general so far and i lost a big €14.95 with another lay on a Roma match. That took my balance down to just €14.95 at one stage. However, i immediately fought back to win most of it back.

Andy Murray has helped me twice this week. I layed against him at very short odds, to profit €5 in one match and i backed Roger Federer to beat him later in the week to net me €11 profit. Late last night i also won a few euro on MLS (american soccer). Just a word on the MLS – the standard of football is shocking…. truely awful. So is the commentary.

mls 22nd aug

Anyway, i finish the week with a balance of €39.24. Here’s my stats this week;

  • Opening Balance: €21.94
  • Bet this week: €462.70
  • Current Balance: €39.24
  • Profit/Loss (week): €17.30 profit
  • Profit/Loss (month): €19.24 profit

Here were my posts;