Archive for the ‘Selecting’ category

One last bet

October 1st, 2009

I’ve said a couple of times this week that I was happy enough to finish the month with over €50. I also said during my good run of bets last week that a target of €75 was not beyond my reach. Although I’ve said that I wouldn’t be placing another bet this week, I already had a bet in place since Sunday evening. I backed a six way accumulator on betfair at odds of 8.49 with a stake of €3.10.

last_multiple_this_month

Before tonight’s Champions League games I have 3 teams up Man City, Sevilla and Arsenal. Tonight I was waiting on Man United, Real Madrid and Chelsea. I’ve prepared this post early today, if it comes in I might jut have snatched victory from Sean at the last minute if not my balance is €49 (not the €50 I expected before last night’s attempt to gain another €4+. I’m not sure Sean will hold off betting tonight but if he does and doesn’t win and my bet comes in I think I’ll just about bypass him. I won’t be counting my chickens though until I see what happens in tonight’s games. Chelsea, United and Real Madrid are all big favourites but that doesn’t mean anything! Even if this bet does come good, if Sean wins even €1 more than his current balance, he’ll beat me to it anyway. See the outcome below:

*** Update at around midnight:
My 6 team accumulator came good so I profited €22.06 on a €3.10 stake for a total return of €25.16. That leaves my closing balance at €74.16 for the month. That’s a total profit of €49.16 by betting only €41.44. Considering I layed off a lot of money in one night, I could have had an even better ratio than this.

I’ve passed Sean’s starting total for today but I wonder have I done enough? Sean didn’t think I stood a chance so it was a great comeback no matter what happens!

last accumulator of the month

September 29th, 2009

Today i placed my final accumulator bet on paddypower.com. It’s on tonight’s champions league matches.

champs league accumulator

I’ve backed Arsenal, Barcelona and Inter Milan to win tonight. If they do, i’ll get over €2 back. Fail to win and i’m down €1.

Enda has already thrown in the towel this month and conceded defeat for the second month on the trot.

It means it’s 2-0 to me in the monthly head to head battles and tonight’s result doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.

I’ll probably finish the month with over €70 which is an incredible tally and one that i’m gonna struggle to top next month.

accumulator for sean

September 26th, 2009

I still have to place 2 accumulator bets before the month ends and here’s one of them;

accumulator

I’ve gone for Valencia at home to Athletico Madrid which is the biggest risk of the lot… Spurs face Burnley at home which should be an easy win and you’d expect nothing less than a convincing win from Madrid at home to Tenerife.

A €1 bet will get me €2.80 back. This is also my first bet of the week. Enda has done well to get himself back in to it, but despite all his good work he’s still over €20 off the pace :mrgreen: With just 4 days left in September, it’s probably expecting too much from Enda to mount a late challenge.

Winning Accumulator

September 12th, 2009

Earlier I mentioned I had €3.95 on an accumulator bet to return €13.40. It’s come in for me. I was on Liverpool (had to be the sure thing today for 20%), Sunderland at home to Hull City (I’ve mentioned before I fancy Hull for the drop along with Burnley and Portsmouth) and Limavady United away to Glebe Rangers in the Irish League First Division:

treble_liverpool_limavady_sunderland

My other accumulator; Liverpool and 2 draws is dead after Bolton sneaked an injury time winner at Portsmouth. I knew it was very high risk with high reward so it was worth the punt.

I did mention earlier that I was going to lump on €19 on a single bet but I held back on it (although my selection did come in). Instead I said I’d try to free up some time and stick with my low risk strategy. So that’s 8.45 profit today and a total profit of €11.41. Slow and steady once again without ever risking too much of my kitty.

All my bets so far (apart from laying off to ensure profit last week) have been with PaddyPower and I’ll be aiming for a big accumulator before the end of the month to try and double my bankroll again.

2nd accumulator for sean

September 6th, 2009

These accumulators are good fun, but i’m still very sceptical about how profitable they are. For me, it’s always best to keep it simple and bet on one event at a time. That said, surely my accumulator today can’t fail…

tennisbet

I’ve backed Nadal, Serena Williams and Venus/Serena in a doubles match which all take place today (in the US open). Bet €1, get €1.17 back. Very low risk, but it will still be profit if it comes in. I’ll be happy to break even in these accumulators and then do the real damage on single events with betfair :mrgreen:

1st accumulator for sean

September 5th, 2009

As the new rules have changed this month, we must now place 5 x €1 bets on paddypower.com. This is gonna be very tough and i’ll be happy to break even as i’ve never had much luck with accumulators.

Anyway, here’s my first one… Poland / Italy / Spain. Looks good on paper but it’s never this easy…

paddypower 1st accumulator

I’m basically trying to limit my losses on these accumulators rather than back small at massive odds. All 3 of these sides are firm favorites going in to their matches so hopefully they all play well and win. Italy face Georgia away which won’t be easy. Spain face Belgium at home which should be an easy win. Poland face Northern Ireland at home which on paper looks like a home win, but Northern Ireland can be unpredictable and may well nick a draw.

Copying Enda’s Bet

September 5th, 2009

I won’t say how much i have on Scotland and Ireland winning tonight, but it’s a lot more than what Enda has on and it’s also an accumulator but not with paddypower.

I think Ireland are a fantastic price at 2.08 on betfair at the minute and i fully expect them to beat Cyprus, especially now that they’re without their man hitman up front (suspended). At home, Macedonia are dangerous, away from home anything less than a win won’t be accepted by Scottish fans so i’d tip an easy win for the Scottish.

So no matter what happens tonight, we’re both gonna win or lose money and one of us is gonna go ahead by a good bit… if Scotland and Ireland both win tonight, september could well be over for Enda :twisted:

P.S. although the title suggests otherwise, it was always my intention to bet on tonight’s internationals – at one stage i had a 7 team accumulator selected but then told myself to cop on, so i reduced it to just two matches.

Going with my predictions

August 30th, 2009

I’ve been very very quiet on the site all week. Sean has been egging me on to bet, but I found it hard to find a low risk strategy that would give me a high reward. I’ve said I was the underdog and I’m still behind, but I’ve passed the €50 mark for the first time and I’m within touching distance now.

luckydotie_balance_enda_30th_august

If I lost this bet today I would have been in trouble. I’ve threatened to go for a monster bet and had an even money shot in mind but decided against it. It would be ridiculous to blow my €30 profit just to beat Sean. I can live with being second as long as I’m in profit, I’m not sure he can :) Who’s to say that with another winning bet tomorrow though that I can’t bypass Sean?

Here’s my selection for today:

results_man_city_aston_villa_everton_treble

I placed a multiple bet on the last 3 selections in yesterday’s tips (Man City, Everton and Aston Villa, all to win). I’ve been lucky as Everton got an injury time penalty but you need luck and I’ve had my fair share over the last few weeks. Unfortunately you cannot see a screenshot of a multiple bet in Betfair after it’s been settled (so just a note for next time to take a screenshot when I place the bet). After the first two results came in I layed Villa in separate bet shortly after half time at 1.27.

multiple_bet_man_city_villa_everton

This lost me 1.62 of my profit but it insured I’d be up no matter what and I wasn’t taking the risk on a 3 way bet. Even if Fulham came back to snatch victory, with my €6 lay I’d have been up over €3. I’ve said before that “accumulators are a bookies dream against the average punter and are very hard to pull off” so I’m chuffed with today’s result! I’m 100% honest when I say that I was actually not going to bother betting this weekend and just be happy with second place and doubling my money! However, now that I’m within touching distance of Sean I will be going for it tomorrow. I think the only time that I really reacted to his bets this month was placing a massive €30 on Usain Bolt. I profited about €3 on this bet but it was silly to risk my entire kitty too. Since then I’ve decided to become much more disciplined and I’ve been consistently winning since. I still have a massive mountain to climb but I’m a lot closer than I was this morning. Sean has been cautious since going way ahead of me and rightly so. It’s not like he hasn’t went for it all month so he deserved the break. He won’t ‘have’ to bet tomorrow but as he wont know what I’m up to all day (and I’ll be in the blind as to what he’s up to also), he’d be foolish to assume I won’t be going for broke. Sean has the advantage of being more cautious with his selections tomorrow, were I’ll have to take a more risky approach. I’m sure you’d agree after watching us over the last month that this is a real turnaround in styles. Sean doesn’t have to be cautious though and he may take a big risk to put it beyond me even if I win big tomorrow. We have completely contrasting styles and it makes it interesting to see if we change styles on the final day to seal the deal. I have a monetary target in mind for tomorrow and it’s enough above Sean’s current balance that even if he does win it’ll have to be a decent amount. Hopefully my luck continues and I can make a decent stab at it anyway. I’ll be posting at around 11.45 tomorrow night with my final balance. I have to say, I’m very very surprised that we’re both sitting here on a balance of more than €50 with one day to go. Until one or both of us can consistently profit over a six month period, it would be stupid to say that we are winning punters just yet.

Premier League Predictions 29-30 Aug

August 28th, 2009

I got 7 out of 10 right last week and I think I’ll find it hard to match or beat that with this weeks fixtures. Here goes:

  • Chelsea v Burnley: Home Win – I have to go for Chelsea as the banker bet this week. I was wrong about Burnley last week as I thought Everton would beat them, but I have to say Chelsea at Stamford Bridge have to beat Burnley. Is it possible Burnley can get a point after beating United and Everton? No! (having a laugh to myself here incase I get this one wrong :) )
  • Blackburn v West Ham: Home Win – I said in last week that I thought Blackburn would be a team that wouldn’t have any relegation troubles. They have 0 points so far and it’s not hard to get stuck down there at the bottom of the table if you don’t get a few results under your belt. I’m tempted to say draw, but I’ll go for Blackburn to get all 3 points.
  • Bolton v Liverpool: Away Win – I’m tempted to say draw or even home win! But Liverpool ‘need’ to get back on track here after 2 defeats so far. It’s not a tragedy but I’m sure they aren’t happy with the start so far. I’m going to be bold and say that if they don’t take all three points then they can’t win the league hence the away win. Bolton aren’t a bad side though and ‘might’ be hard to break down.
  • Stoke City v Sunderland: Draw – Stoke were strong at home last year and will be hoping to keep it up this year. However, Sunderland are looking good and Steve Bruce will get the best from his players. I expect Sunderland to get something here and to do well this year.
  • Tottenham v Birmingham: Home Win – I think Spurs can keep it up. Look at their team on paper, they’ve some good players there and a decent squad size. I know it doesn’t sound right that Spurs are taking 12 points from the first 4 games but it’s logical and I’m saying home win here.
  • Wolves v Hull City: Home Win – I said it before and I’ll say it again I’m not convinced with Phil Brown. This game is hard to call but it’s a home win for me.
  • Man Utd v Arsenal: Home Win – Heart says home win. Another hard one to call, I’d be tempted to say draw but I’m going for United to get all 3 points here and bypass Arsenal in the table. Hopefully I’m right! but Arsenal are looking good so far and this will be a tight game I think.
  • Portsmouth v Man City: Away WinCan Portsmouth get their first point? Not for me. This is a great chance for Man City to prove to the doubters that they are serious contenders and take 9 from 9 points here. Portsmouth need a result but I don’t expect them to get it here. I’ve went for Man City, but if you’re looking for a bit of value, it’s worth having a read around about the state of the take over bid going on at Portsmouth.
  • Everton v Wigan: Home Win – Everton are at the bottom of the table and shouln’t be there on paper. I never thought they’d be pointless after 2 games. Wigan got battered by Man Utd in the second half last weekend and I expect Everton to beat them here. The Lescott transfer saga is now over and Everton will be hoping to put their bad start to right this weekend. They’ve already got Distin in to replace Lescott so he’ll be looking to start off with a clean slate and a clean sheet.
  • Aston Villa v Fulham: Home Win – I watched Villa beat Liverpool 3-1 on Monday night and if I’m honest I don’t think they deserved it. Their defense looks shocking but will be bolstered if they sign Richard Dunne from Man City (I’m not sure if this is a done deal yet). Fulham are a good side, their away form wasn’t great last year, but I think it will improve this season. However, I’m just going to go with my gut here and say Villa to win this one.
  • As always, I only do this for the fun as I’m more interested in the Premier League than any other division. If you look over my previous posts you’ll see that I rarely follow up with a bet. Hopefully next month there might be a bit more action taken on my predictions/tips (I’ll be posting on this at the beginning of September). If you think I’m way of the mark with any of my selections, don’t be afraid to let me know with a comment!

Sean smashes €50 mark

August 24th, 2009

The heat has now been turned up to the max on Enda. The €50 mark has been smashed, i’ve opened up a big €8.59 gap on Enda and there’s just 7 days left for Enda to turn things around.

Never one to accept defeat, i was determined to end my run of unlucky lays. I lost big on several occassions last week by laying results which seemed pretty unlikely. So what do i do this week? Play the exact same high risk lays.

Today, i placed three big lays and all 3 worked in my favour, netting me €11.50 in profit. I was betting on womens football. I layed a 0-0 half time scoreline plus a half time draw in the Germany v Norway match.

womens football bets 23rd august

Germany won the first half 1-0 which meant i won both of my lays. The match looked open, so i layed the 1-0 full time score and won another €2 as the match finished 4-0 (3 late goals).

So a total of €11.50 profit on the one football match today and that shoots me in to the lead again and lumps all the pressure on Enda.

My balance is now standing at an incredible €50.16. That’s a 150%+ profit on my starting balance of €20. Enda is really going to have to go for it now…

I’ve already got one hand on August’s Lucky.ie ‘player of the month’ crown and Enda is now forced in to making more bets. Losing money is not an option at this stage for him, so every single bet he places will be coupled with immense pressure.

The stage is now yours Enda… show us what you’re made of :twisted: