Archive for the ‘Predictions’ category

Going with my predictions

August 30th, 2009

I’ve been very very quiet on the site all week. Sean has been egging me on to bet, but I found it hard to find a low risk strategy that would give me a high reward. I’ve said I was the underdog and I’m still behind, but I’ve passed the €50 mark for the first time and I’m within touching distance now.

luckydotie_balance_enda_30th_august

If I lost this bet today I would have been in trouble. I’ve threatened to go for a monster bet and had an even money shot in mind but decided against it. It would be ridiculous to blow my €30 profit just to beat Sean. I can live with being second as long as I’m in profit, I’m not sure he can :) Who’s to say that with another winning bet tomorrow though that I can’t bypass Sean?

Here’s my selection for today:

results_man_city_aston_villa_everton_treble

I placed a multiple bet on the last 3 selections in yesterday’s tips (Man City, Everton and Aston Villa, all to win). I’ve been lucky as Everton got an injury time penalty but you need luck and I’ve had my fair share over the last few weeks. Unfortunately you cannot see a screenshot of a multiple bet in Betfair after it’s been settled (so just a note for next time to take a screenshot when I place the bet). After the first two results came in I layed Villa in separate bet shortly after half time at 1.27.

multiple_bet_man_city_villa_everton

This lost me 1.62 of my profit but it insured I’d be up no matter what and I wasn’t taking the risk on a 3 way bet. Even if Fulham came back to snatch victory, with my €6 lay I’d have been up over €3. I’ve said before that “accumulators are a bookies dream against the average punter and are very hard to pull off” so I’m chuffed with today’s result! I’m 100% honest when I say that I was actually not going to bother betting this weekend and just be happy with second place and doubling my money! However, now that I’m within touching distance of Sean I will be going for it tomorrow. I think the only time that I really reacted to his bets this month was placing a massive €30 on Usain Bolt. I profited about €3 on this bet but it was silly to risk my entire kitty too. Since then I’ve decided to become much more disciplined and I’ve been consistently winning since. I still have a massive mountain to climb but I’m a lot closer than I was this morning. Sean has been cautious since going way ahead of me and rightly so. It’s not like he hasn’t went for it all month so he deserved the break. He won’t ‘have’ to bet tomorrow but as he wont know what I’m up to all day (and I’ll be in the blind as to what he’s up to also), he’d be foolish to assume I won’t be going for broke. Sean has the advantage of being more cautious with his selections tomorrow, were I’ll have to take a more risky approach. I’m sure you’d agree after watching us over the last month that this is a real turnaround in styles. Sean doesn’t have to be cautious though and he may take a big risk to put it beyond me even if I win big tomorrow. We have completely contrasting styles and it makes it interesting to see if we change styles on the final day to seal the deal. I have a monetary target in mind for tomorrow and it’s enough above Sean’s current balance that even if he does win it’ll have to be a decent amount. Hopefully my luck continues and I can make a decent stab at it anyway. I’ll be posting at around 11.45 tomorrow night with my final balance. I have to say, I’m very very surprised that we’re both sitting here on a balance of more than €50 with one day to go. Until one or both of us can consistently profit over a six month period, it would be stupid to say that we are winning punters just yet.

Premier League Predictions 29-30 Aug

August 28th, 2009

I got 7 out of 10 right last week and I think I’ll find it hard to match or beat that with this weeks fixtures. Here goes:

  • Chelsea v Burnley: Home Win – I have to go for Chelsea as the banker bet this week. I was wrong about Burnley last week as I thought Everton would beat them, but I have to say Chelsea at Stamford Bridge have to beat Burnley. Is it possible Burnley can get a point after beating United and Everton? No! (having a laugh to myself here incase I get this one wrong :) )
  • Blackburn v West Ham: Home Win – I said in last week that I thought Blackburn would be a team that wouldn’t have any relegation troubles. They have 0 points so far and it’s not hard to get stuck down there at the bottom of the table if you don’t get a few results under your belt. I’m tempted to say draw, but I’ll go for Blackburn to get all 3 points.
  • Bolton v Liverpool: Away Win – I’m tempted to say draw or even home win! But Liverpool ‘need’ to get back on track here after 2 defeats so far. It’s not a tragedy but I’m sure they aren’t happy with the start so far. I’m going to be bold and say that if they don’t take all three points then they can’t win the league hence the away win. Bolton aren’t a bad side though and ‘might’ be hard to break down.
  • Stoke City v Sunderland: Draw – Stoke were strong at home last year and will be hoping to keep it up this year. However, Sunderland are looking good and Steve Bruce will get the best from his players. I expect Sunderland to get something here and to do well this year.
  • Tottenham v Birmingham: Home Win – I think Spurs can keep it up. Look at their team on paper, they’ve some good players there and a decent squad size. I know it doesn’t sound right that Spurs are taking 12 points from the first 4 games but it’s logical and I’m saying home win here.
  • Wolves v Hull City: Home Win – I said it before and I’ll say it again I’m not convinced with Phil Brown. This game is hard to call but it’s a home win for me.
  • Man Utd v Arsenal: Home Win – Heart says home win. Another hard one to call, I’d be tempted to say draw but I’m going for United to get all 3 points here and bypass Arsenal in the table. Hopefully I’m right! but Arsenal are looking good so far and this will be a tight game I think.
  • Portsmouth v Man City: Away WinCan Portsmouth get their first point? Not for me. This is a great chance for Man City to prove to the doubters that they are serious contenders and take 9 from 9 points here. Portsmouth need a result but I don’t expect them to get it here. I’ve went for Man City, but if you’re looking for a bit of value, it’s worth having a read around about the state of the take over bid going on at Portsmouth.
  • Everton v Wigan: Home Win – Everton are at the bottom of the table and shouln’t be there on paper. I never thought they’d be pointless after 2 games. Wigan got battered by Man Utd in the second half last weekend and I expect Everton to beat them here. The Lescott transfer saga is now over and Everton will be hoping to put their bad start to right this weekend. They’ve already got Distin in to replace Lescott so he’ll be looking to start off with a clean slate and a clean sheet.
  • Aston Villa v Fulham: Home Win – I watched Villa beat Liverpool 3-1 on Monday night and if I’m honest I don’t think they deserved it. Their defense looks shocking but will be bolstered if they sign Richard Dunne from Man City (I’m not sure if this is a done deal yet). Fulham are a good side, their away form wasn’t great last year, but I think it will improve this season. However, I’m just going to go with my gut here and say Villa to win this one.
  • As always, I only do this for the fun as I’m more interested in the Premier League than any other division. If you look over my previous posts you’ll see that I rarely follow up with a bet. Hopefully next month there might be a bit more action taken on my predictions/tips (I’ll be posting on this at the beginning of September). If you think I’m way of the mark with any of my selections, don’t be afraid to let me know with a comment!

€2.22 Profit today

August 22nd, 2009

I said earlier in my tips/predictions that I backed one of the selections. I put €4.90 on Man United to beat Wigan Athletic at odds of 1.58. United won the match 5-0 with two goals from Wayne Rooney (his 100th and 101st goal for United), one each from Dimitar Berbatov and Michael Owen (his first premier league goal for the club) and an injury time free kick from Nani.

man_united_wigan_5-0

I put this bet on yesterday and I also layed United at 1.10 for €5 and gave away 50 cents off my winnings. If I was watching the game I’m sure I wouldn’t have layed this off but I make my selections and stick by them and that’s that! I expected a United win but not by this margin, hence the cautious lay. I’m back up above the €35 mark and have another €2 bet in play in one of tomorrow’s games. I haven’t really made any progress this week but if my bet comes in tomorrow my balance should be up around the €39 mark. You’ll also see a small 10 cent loss on a horse race yesterday. This was another unsuccessful back big lay small attempt :) I would have backed Arsenal too, but at 1/5 it’s way too short. United were short too but I’m happy with 58% roi. My balance now stands at €35.12.

So far, I’ve predicted 5 out of 6 of the Premier League games today. Not bad, but I’ll not be getting too carried away until I can hit 9 outta 10 two weeks in a row :) I might actually back 5 or 6 then.

Premier League Tips 22-24 Aug

August 21st, 2009

Here’s my predictions for this weekend’s games:

I’ve bet on one of these already and I may be putting on another bet tomorrow morning before kick off. If you fancy a bet yourself sign up to Betfair by clicking on the banner below for a £50 free bet.

  • Arsenal v Portsmouth: Home Win – Arsenal’s impressive start to continue and I expect goals in this one. Portsmouth will be gutted about the midweek defeat to Birmingham with such a late goal and will be keen to get their first points on the board, I dont think they’ll get them and there best hope for me is an outstanding performance from David James
  • Birmingham v Stoke City: Draw – Should be a cagey enough game, Stoke got by on home form last year and will be hoping to improve away this year. I think they might get a result here
  • Hull City v Bolton: Draw – I’ll go for Bolton to get something here after an opening day loss
  • Man City v Wolves: Home Win – Man City to maintain their 100% record. I expect them to be very strong and home this year just like last season
  • Sunderland v Blackburn: Home Win – This is a hard one to call but I’ll go for the home team although I think Blackburn did ok against Man City on the opening day and I dont expect them to have any relegation troubles
  • Wigan v Man Utd: Away Win – United need to recover after their loss away to Burnley. Anything less than a win is a disaster and Fergie would have had the hairdrier on full power since Wednesday night
  • West Ham v Tottenham: Away Win – London derby and Sean expects Spurs to faulter this weekend. I expect them to keep on scoring here and I think they can take all 3 points. Spurs for me offer the best odds and value out of this weeks games
  • Burnley v Everton: Away Win – Everton have ambitions on pushing the big 4 this year and are a good side. They got mauled by Arsenal and I’m thinking they an get over the Arsenal win and the uncertainty regarding Jolein Lescott’s position at the club and get their season off to a start here. They are also coming of a 4-0 win in europe this week. Could Burnley get 2 massive wins in the space of 4 days? Not for me
  • Fulham v Chelsea: Away Win – I expect Fulham to make this a tough game for the blues but can anyone stop Chelsea? I expect them to grind out another result here. Fulham have also lost Andy Johnson up front so are loosing a bit of fire power for this one
  • Liverpool v Aston Villa: Home Win – I’m tempted to say draw as you wouldn’t expect Villa to be without points after 2 games but I think Liverpool will be too strong for them at Anfield. They justified their short odds earlier in the week by crushing Stoke
  • So far I have 6/10 in last weekend’s games and 3/6 in the midweek fixtures. I’d like to improve on this, so let’s see how I go this time. If you have any thoughts on my tips, please feel free to drop me a comment.

Look at the midweek Premier League games

August 18th, 2009

On Saturday, I predicted how I thought the opening games would go. I got 6 out of 10 correct and very nearly made it 8/10. If I was able to predict 6/10 every week I’d have a good chance of making some money on accumulators. But it’s more likely I’d normally be closer to getting 4 outta 10 :) I’ll have another go at the midweek games.

Here’s my tips for the games this evening and tomorrow night:
Sunderland v Chelsea: Away Win – Flip of a coin here for me. I think Sunderland can be a very strong side this year. I expect it to be tight but I’ll have to go with Chelsea, they just keep going at teams to grind out results.
Wigan v Wolves: Home Win - I’ll go with Wigan to continue their good start here! I though Bruce leaving would have left them looking shaky, but they got a good win in the opening game against Villa and looked good.
Birmingham v Portsmouth: Draw – Birmingham looked like a well organised side at the weekend and should be strong. After Portsmouth’s defeat at home to Fulham they need to get some points on the board. This is a hard one to call and I’ll opt for the draw here.
Burnley v Man Utd: Away Win - United to make it 6 points out of 6 here for me. I said on Saturday that I expect Burnley to go down and I expect a United win tomorrow night. This is one of the teams you’d have expected Ronaldo to tear apart so it’ll be interesting to see if United can score at least two against Burnley. I was at Old Trafford on Sunday and I wasn’t too impressed with what i saw and I’m hoping United up their performance and win this one easily.
Hull City v Tottenham: Away Win – I fancy Spurs to get another 3 points here. I fancy Hull to go down this year. I’m not convinced with some of the substitutions Phil Brown made against Chelsea on Saturday. He was putting on forwards when I thought he really should have been concentrating on locking up at the back and securing what would have been a great away point at Stamford Bridge.
Liverpool v Stoke City: Home Win – Liverpool have to win this one after the defeat at White Hart Lane. they didn’t look great and were out played by a good Spurs side. They need to recover with a win and I think they’ll do just that.

So that’s my predictions. I’m not sure about backing any of the selections above. I’ve called a draw in the Birmingham – Portsmouth game but might even be tempted with an away win as Portsmouth are 3/1. This is a big test for them to come back after the defeat at the weekend. I know there’s only one game gone but I have a feeling they will go down unless they start picking up points very soon. I’m sure the manager and players know this and will be seeing this as an opportunity of getting those points against one of the sides that have been promoted. I’ll wait until later if I’m having a bet on any of these.

Premier League Predictions

August 15th, 2009

Since it’s the first week of the new season I’ve decided to have a bit of fun and have a go at predicting the outcomes of the games. I checked Betfair and the odds for my predictions are a massive 2800/1, which probably doesn’t even reflect the chances of them happening :) However, If you’re backing multiples on betfair you can only have 8 selections on one coupon so you can’r actually back all 10 Premier League games. The minimum bet for multiples is also €2 so there’s no way I chance that amount of my kitty on this kind of bet. If I could place a smaller bet I’d definitely put my money where my mouth is for the fun of it! Here’s my tips:

  • Chelsea v Hull City : Home win - has to be Chelsea here. They’ll be keen to get of to a good start and I think Hull are going to find it very difficult this year.
  • Aston Villa v Wigan : Home win – Villa need to progress again and Wigan may be effected by Bruce exit.
  • Blackburn v Man City : Away win – On paper it has to be Man City although they need to improve their away form this year.
  • Bolton v Sunderland : Draw - this one will be tight and Sunderland are a value bet here imo.
  • Portsmouth v Fulham : Away win – Fulham struggled away from home last year, i think they can improve on that this year and this is as good a chance as any against a depleted Portsmoth side.
  • Stoke City v Burnley : Home win - I think Stoke’s impressive home form from last year will continue and I’m tipping Burnley for relegation.
  • Wolves v West Ham : Draw – Hard to call this one. I’m tempted to say away win but I think Wolves are the strongest of the 3 teams to come up and might upset a few teams at home this year.
  • Everton v Arsenal : Draw - Hard to call again. I expect these teams both to be pushing near the top end of the table and Everton can improve if they have a bit for luck with injuries.
  • Man Utd v Birmingham : Home win - Has to be United, although there’s defensive issues with Vidic, Neville, Brown out and Evans is suspect. United need to get off to a good start this year though.
  • Tottenham v Liverpool : Home win - Stevie G is a doubt for this one and I’m going for an upset here and a Spurs win. Spot the United fan!
  • ps. Remember to enter the Lucky.ie Fantasy Football League for a chance to win some free money.