Archive for the ‘Competition’ category

Kicking October off

October 2nd, 2009

We’ve adapted our rules again to get rid of the restrictive 5 x €1 accumulators on Paddy Power. We’ll begin October with a balance of €25 each, €20 balance on Betfair and €5 on Paddy Power.

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level_balance_paddy

Again we must bet the full €5 on Paddy and €20 on betfair. Other than that it’s completely optional for us to transfer money between our accounts at our own discretion. We just need to remember that the minumum top up on betfair is €15 so we’ll need to remember when transferring money across from Paddy.

That’s about it, otherwise it’s the same as last month. If both myself and Sean can profit for the 3rd month in a row I might start to believe we can turn a profit by betting online.

Best of luck Sean… let the profit continue!

September Champion

October 1st, 2009

I’ve levelled up our monthly battle at 1-1 right at the very death. Sean led the whole way through September up until approximately 9.45pm last night.

I waited to post until exactly 11.59pm. I wasn’t sure if Sean had bet, until he posted a comment at 12.11, to confirm my comeback was enough to get me over the line. Sean look a massive early lead, and thought he’d won it early on. I just laughed posts like that off and bided my time, before getting stuck in. I knew I had a mountain to climb, but I never doubted I could do it. Goin into week 4, my balance was only €33 against Sean’s €70+ but I wasn’t concerned. I set myself mini challenges to hit €40 (and did it), then €50 (and did it again). I then wanted to get myself just enough above €50 to ensure I ended up with around the €50 mark at the end of the month. But I also wanted a bit extra to still give myself a chance of winning this month’s challenge. I did this with bets like this and this and left myself with €53.10. I then had a €3.10 cushion over the €50 mark (which I would have been delighted with). I wanted to choose a bet that gave me enough odds of to hit €75 mark with a stake of €3.10 (although my this attempt to gain another €5 lost be a euro). I was very careful with my selection of 6 teams. I chose Sevilla at over even money to beat Rangers. This added some value into my bet, I then chose 5 more teams that I thought were definite winners to get some muliple value into my bet. It’s not easy to get 6 teams up even if most of them are napped on favourites! I’m really really happy with my selection as I just knew not to trust Liverpool or AC Milan this week :) Again, I’ve been lucky but I’ve never risked too much and came good at the end, when it mattered.

So I’ve levelled things up and I’ve also bet the least and profited the most amount of money since we kicked off last month.

Once again though, I won’t get carried away. I said last month and I’ll say it again. Until one of us is able to consistently profit over a period of 6 months we’ve proved nothing. We’re up over €150 between us in 2 months so hopefully we can do the same again in October. I didn’t even get 1 vote in this month’s poll but I love being the underdog, it suits me just fine every time :) Sean will probably attack early next month again and I may find myself in a similar position. I’ll not be bothered all I want to do is make the right bets!

Myself and Sean will probably re-access the rules again this month. I’m keen to keep my PaddyPower account open as part of the site but I’m not sure Sean will be too keen on the accumulators continuing. We’ll probably kick off October’s betting on Saturday again.

One last bet

October 1st, 2009

I’ve said a couple of times this week that I was happy enough to finish the month with over €50. I also said during my good run of bets last week that a target of €75 was not beyond my reach. Although I’ve said that I wouldn’t be placing another bet this week, I already had a bet in place since Sunday evening. I backed a six way accumulator on betfair at odds of 8.49 with a stake of €3.10.

last_multiple_this_month

Before tonight’s Champions League games I have 3 teams up Man City, Sevilla and Arsenal. Tonight I was waiting on Man United, Real Madrid and Chelsea. I’ve prepared this post early today, if it comes in I might jut have snatched victory from Sean at the last minute if not my balance is €49 (not the €50 I expected before last night’s attempt to gain another €4+. I’m not sure Sean will hold off betting tonight but if he does and doesn’t win and my bet comes in I think I’ll just about bypass him. I won’t be counting my chickens though until I see what happens in tonight’s games. Chelsea, United and Real Madrid are all big favourites but that doesn’t mean anything! Even if this bet does come good, if Sean wins even €1 more than his current balance, he’ll beat me to it anyway. See the outcome below:

*** Update at around midnight:
My 6 team accumulator came good so I profited €22.06 on a €3.10 stake for a total return of €25.16. That leaves my closing balance at €74.16 for the month. That’s a total profit of €49.16 by betting only €41.44. Considering I layed off a lot of money in one night, I could have had an even better ratio than this.

I’ve passed Sean’s starting total for today but I wonder have I done enough? Sean didn’t think I stood a chance so it was a great comeback no matter what happens!

My closing balance is €49.95

August 31st, 2009

One thing I decided on early on in August was that I’d finish all bets and disclose my balance at exactly 11:59 on the 31st of the month. I’m currently still playing poker (and have been since 8pm tonight) and will update this post in 7 minutes time. Drum role please….

Update @ 00:00 – Sorry Sean, I had to have some fun there and play a few minds games. My balance is €49.95, so I’m declaring you the winner alright :)

If anyone has actually bothered to tune in tonight our posts might look a bit messy as in fair play we both wanted to post around/before 12 o’clock so that there’s no sneaky bets going in after midnight. Sean made the mistake of posting his balance at around 11pm so this gave me the opportunity to try and psyche him out with a few comments. To be honest, I was pushing in and around the €50 mark at the time and I was 99% sure he’d take the bait. Very sorry Sean, but I did have great fun tonight doing this and it would have been a very low blow if I’d bypassed you this way. You did mention mind game in your profile page at the beginning of the month so I thought I’d oblige. I was trying a Keane/Viera tunnel incident and it didn’t work for me. I came close though, but I’m glad you’ve stayed above the €50 mark and are the rightful winner. Congratulations!

Right, on to my bets for today. I nearly wasn’t going to bet at all today as I just couldn’t see anything that interested me. Like Sean, I thought Newcastle would win but I wasn’t prepared to risk my balance. I was so happy to reach the €50 mark this month that there was no way I was blowing it (unfortunately, I had a bit of trouble with the dollar/euro conversion at the betfair poker tables tonight while rushing to post at the last minute and I’ve come up 5 cents short :) I can live with that though). I had a 68 cent bet on a horse that Frankie Detorri was on earlier. Totally uneducated guesswork that didn’t pay off (as I said I didn’t see anything I fancied and I was only gambling here). This left my balance at exactly €50 and I nearly left it at that!

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I then spent the rest of my day on the Betfair poker tables but couldn’t really make a move. I blew €1.95 on a $2.50+$0.25 NL Hold’em game which left me below the €50 mark and I wasn’t happy with myself. I said earlier in the month that I wouldn’t play another cash poker game but I figured it was a low risk strategy that ‘might’ get me close to Sean’s starting balance. He said earlier himself that it was hard to find bets today, so I was figuring he wouldn’t get too far past his starting balance today. The cash game worked out not too bad for me and I did hover around the €52 mark for a while at about 10.30pm tonight. I played right up to 23.58 though and here’s the screenshot to prove it.

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You’ll also notice that I’ve sat through 232 hands at this stage (I’m a lightweight, so I’m shattered now). I never really took any massive risks at the poker table tonight although I was prepared to go all in with Ace/King, KK or AA to try and hit around the €55 mark (I didn’t get the cards though). I just never felt it today, and I suppose I should have ensured that I bypassed Sean with my Treble yesterday (that was a bit of an oversight).

Sean is the deserved winner! He really went for it all month long. I have been more cautious and I’m not afraid to admit; if I’d gone ahead I’d probably have stopped betting until Sean caught up. The key thing for me was to make profit and keep my discipline. I’ll not say I didn’t try to win it today but I just wasn’t prepared to risk my bankroll on the last day. Sean was, and proved it right up to the very last seconds, so you have to admire him.

I know he really wanted to win and it was mean of me to taunt him with false claims of victory but that’s sport for you! Well done Sean and let the games begin for September again!

Going with my predictions

August 30th, 2009

I’ve been very very quiet on the site all week. Sean has been egging me on to bet, but I found it hard to find a low risk strategy that would give me a high reward. I’ve said I was the underdog and I’m still behind, but I’ve passed the €50 mark for the first time and I’m within touching distance now.

luckydotie_balance_enda_30th_august

If I lost this bet today I would have been in trouble. I’ve threatened to go for a monster bet and had an even money shot in mind but decided against it. It would be ridiculous to blow my €30 profit just to beat Sean. I can live with being second as long as I’m in profit, I’m not sure he can :) Who’s to say that with another winning bet tomorrow though that I can’t bypass Sean?

Here’s my selection for today:

results_man_city_aston_villa_everton_treble

I placed a multiple bet on the last 3 selections in yesterday’s tips (Man City, Everton and Aston Villa, all to win). I’ve been lucky as Everton got an injury time penalty but you need luck and I’ve had my fair share over the last few weeks. Unfortunately you cannot see a screenshot of a multiple bet in Betfair after it’s been settled (so just a note for next time to take a screenshot when I place the bet). After the first two results came in I layed Villa in separate bet shortly after half time at 1.27.

multiple_bet_man_city_villa_everton

This lost me 1.62 of my profit but it insured I’d be up no matter what and I wasn’t taking the risk on a 3 way bet. Even if Fulham came back to snatch victory, with my €6 lay I’d have been up over €3. I’ve said before that “accumulators are a bookies dream against the average punter and are very hard to pull off” so I’m chuffed with today’s result! I’m 100% honest when I say that I was actually not going to bother betting this weekend and just be happy with second place and doubling my money! However, now that I’m within touching distance of Sean I will be going for it tomorrow. I think the only time that I really reacted to his bets this month was placing a massive €30 on Usain Bolt. I profited about €3 on this bet but it was silly to risk my entire kitty too. Since then I’ve decided to become much more disciplined and I’ve been consistently winning since. I still have a massive mountain to climb but I’m a lot closer than I was this morning. Sean has been cautious since going way ahead of me and rightly so. It’s not like he hasn’t went for it all month so he deserved the break. He won’t ‘have’ to bet tomorrow but as he wont know what I’m up to all day (and I’ll be in the blind as to what he’s up to also), he’d be foolish to assume I won’t be going for broke. Sean has the advantage of being more cautious with his selections tomorrow, were I’ll have to take a more risky approach. I’m sure you’d agree after watching us over the last month that this is a real turnaround in styles. Sean doesn’t have to be cautious though and he may take a big risk to put it beyond me even if I win big tomorrow. We have completely contrasting styles and it makes it interesting to see if we change styles on the final day to seal the deal. I have a monetary target in mind for tomorrow and it’s enough above Sean’s current balance that even if he does win it’ll have to be a decent amount. Hopefully my luck continues and I can make a decent stab at it anyway. I’ll be posting at around 11.45 tomorrow night with my final balance. I have to say, I’m very very surprised that we’re both sitting here on a balance of more than €50 with one day to go. Until one or both of us can consistently profit over a six month period, it would be stupid to say that we are winning punters just yet.

My Fantasy Football Team

August 15th, 2009

Make sure to join the lucky.ie fantasy football league for a chance to win both mine and Sean’s balance at the end of August if you’re topping the table at the end of the Premier League season.

Here’s a sneak preview at my squad:

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I’ve tried to pick a strong forward line and 15 players that I think should play every week and hopefully sneak the odd goal.

Lucky.ie Fantasy Football Giveaway

August 14th, 2009

Yesterday I said that I really wanted to keep my balance above the €20 mark for this month, and here’s the reason why:

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  • We’ve created a lucky.ie fantasy football league on fantasy.premierleague.com and whatever balance I have left at the end of August is up for grabs.
  • To be in with a chance of winning this, just leave a comment on this post and I’ll mail you out the code to join the league over the weekend. You’re email address wont be used for anything else and wont be passed on to any 3rd parties. I just don’t want to post the league code publicly for obvious reasons.
  • If I stay on top of the league, I keep the money and if anyone else wins, including Sean then it’s winner takes all.
  • Entry is limited to one entry per person
  • So hurry on and register your team and drop me a comment here to get signed up! It’s a bit of fun and it’s free money! Entry will be closing next Saturday 22nd of August, so you have until then to get signed up. Although the deadline for entering your team to score full points for the season is 11.30am tomorrow morning.

    Sean has said that he’s interested in giving away his cash too (if he has any left :) ) but might run another competiton. I’ll let him drop a comment on here or update the post to let you know what he’s decided.

    My reason for doing this is because I was prepared to lose the money anyway so why not give something back to people who’ve been following our competition so far.

    update: Yes, Sean will be pooling his profit with Enda and giving away a cash prize to the winner of the lucky.ie fantasy football league!