Archive for the ‘by Sean’ category

December 2009 wrap up

January 31st, 2010

We’re a bit late wrapping up December’s events but we’ve both talked via email and just haven’t had a chance to get blog posts up. To cut a long story short, i ended the month with a balance of over €240 and set a new record in the process :smile:

Since then, i’ve banked approx €350 and still have about €200 in my betfair account, so things are still going well :-)

Unfortunately, none of it is being recorded or means anything for my head to head battle with Enda. We’ve decided to change the rules for 2010 because it was just too time consuming to blog about every single bet we were placing.

It meant betting actually became a chore because we knew we had to bet AND then blog about it.. So stay tuned for then new rules. Once we get time to sit down and agree on them, we’ll be sure to let you know and we also have plans to revamp the site and get you guys more involved ;-)

€200 mark SMASHED!

December 20th, 2009

This is an historic day on lucky.ie. My December 2009 balance stands at a whopping €207.19.

Rage Against the Machine have just been crowned Christmas no.1 and at the time it was announced, i was ‘all in’ on betfair with a balance of around €90. Enda has been destroyed this month and i end 2009 with a bang – earning more this month than my previous 4 months combined.

xfactor bets

It all started on Monday when i backed Joe to win with €50 at 1.27. Had i stuck with that original bet, my balance would now be about €40. But i didn’t. I changed my mind and did so about 10 times throughout the week.

I backed Joe, then backed Rage, then seriously considered redding out on both, then eventually went all in on rage. Crazy stuff. But it worked ;-) In total, i placed 19 bets on this market over 4 days, totalling €248.

I backed & layed for profit, i backed and layed for loss and eventually, to be perfectly honest, i didn’t know how much exactly i was going to win if RATM won. All i knew is that i had everything but €43 involved in this market and once the results were leaked i bet that €43 on Rage at 1.06 (which was obviously great value!).

I had worked out that i should have ended up with a balance of about €150, but couldn’t be sure – i had so many bets on the market that it was just too much hassle to work out exactly what i’d win or lose in different situations. So it was a nice surprise to log in and find my balance at over €200!!!!

At one stage RATM drifted to over 6.4 and you’ll see i placed a few bets at that amount. They never really dropped below odds of 3.00 until this morning when obviously people in the know started getting official figures. A few days ago, i also won a few quid when Everton lost 1-0 to BATE – i’d backed BATE with €5 at 4.7 (great odds) so i won about €14 on that.

dec 17th bets

So a massive win, a great day for me and a great day for lucky.ie – i’ve now set a new record balance and one that i think that will stand for a long time to come ;-) I may have lost the monthly head to head battles with Enda in 2009 (3-2), but after this month, i’ll end the year having earned way more profit :-)

I wonder if Enda will now do a Benitez and claim it’s not over until December 31st ;-) As things stand, there’s ONLY a €200 gap for him to close before the month’s end :mrgreen:

MASSIVE day on sunday

December 19th, 2009

Lets just say that if Rage Against the Machine are crowned Christmas no.1 this Sunday, i’ll have smashed all records on lucky.ie.

Maïa's Birthday
Creative Commons License photo credit: Valentin.Ottone

If Joe wins, i’m down a good chunk (i’ll have blown a lot of my hard work)… but i’ll still be in profit and i should still easily beat Enda this month now that he’s tried to mirror my tactics and got burned at the first attempt :mrgreen:

I have to say that was unlucky. Not sure what the odds were at 3-1 up (under 1.1 anyway) but betting against Celtic, away from home, in europe, when trailing by two goals isn’t exactly a silly thing to do. Had i been watching the match i may well have bet on it myself  and i’d have bet the same way Enda did.

So pure bad luck there, but that’s the risk you take when you place every single bet at low odds. It worked this month for me, but as Enda has proven, it can just as easily go wrong :smile:

running away with it

December 14th, 2009

Enda’s 3 month winning streak WILL be broken this month and in emphatic style. My new tactical approach to gambling is really paying off and right now my betfair balance stands at €77.34.

december 13th bets

Exactly 14 days ago, it stood at €20. So i’ve almost quadroupled it, with a bit of luck along the way but mainly thanks to discipline, structure and good judgement. My target for the month was to increase my balance by 5% per day, every day.

So far in December, i’ve increased it by almost 10% per day on average. It means i’m now just over €9 short of my target. When i reach my target i’ll be cashing out and banning myself from placing any more bets this month.

almost there

Snooker has proven to be a really strong area for me. In total, i’ve made €41.68 on it in the last 7 days (in the UK open). A large chunk of that was ‘accidentally’ won, but i’ve proven that wasn’t just a fluke by going on to win more with risky tactics.

In tonight’s final however, my tactics would have lost me everything had i been quicker to place a bet. Higgins needed a brown to win a frame and i placed €60 on him to win the frame at 1.02, meaning i’d win €1.20 if it went in. It was a straight forward brown which no professional should ever miss – i could have made it time and time again.

He did miss it much to my horror as my bet was just being processed as the ball bounced around in the jaws of the pocket. Luckily, because it was a ‘dead cert’, the odds shortened to 1.01, so my 1.02 bet wasn’t accepted, leaving me with literally a couple of seconds to cancel the bet… (otherwise it would have been automatically be accepted). Higgins eventually lost the frame meaning a 1.01 shot lost. Proving my tactics aren’t bulletproof.

But i knew that. Gambling is gambling. There are no certainties. The only thing that is certain is that you will lose if you keep gambling. But that’s what we’re trying to prove wrong of course here on lucky.ie.

Provided i hit my target this month, i’ll be in profit and placed hundreds of bets over a 5 month period – so too will Enda – which shows that you can defy the odds…

closing in on my target

December 11th, 2009

At the start of the month i set myself a target of changing €20 on betfair in to €86.44.

The biggest overall winning balance so far on lucky.ie has been €74.16, so if i can hit my target, i’ll have well and truely smashed Enda’s record. So far, my plan is working beautifully.

It requires nerves of steel but i’ve always been happy to take on big bets. In the last few days, the riskiest odds i’ve taken on have been 1.31 and i stuck €30 on that. It was on over 2.5 goals in the Barcelona -v- Dinamo Kiev match. I placed that bet when the match was 1-1 in the first half.

Easy money i thought because Kiev had to win by 3 goals to qualify for the champions league knock out stages and Barcelona are just Barcelona – they can’t play any other way than all out attack. But the game was really poor. Kiev were happy with a draw and Barcelona were happy just to knock it about and treat the match as a training session. So i was left sweating on this right up until the last 5 minutes until Messi scored a free kick.

That won me €9.30 but more importantly saved me from losing €30 :smile: Since then, i’ve been placing sensible bets at lower odds and they’re all coming in. Snooker mainly. One of these days i’ll get burned on snooker because the BBC keep changing schedules and cutting off midway through frames which means i lose my ability to predict how shots will go and am just left to make decisions based purely on the fluctuating odds.

Anyway, my new betfair balance is €64.95.

masterclass betting

Add my paddypower balance of €5.12 to that and it means i now have an overall balance of €70.07.

betting tactics

So i’m on course to hit my target of €86.44 on betfair and if all goes to plan i could well end the month with a balance of €90+. The stakes are very high now though. I’m reluctant to bet 100% of my balance on any one event, but i have to if i’m to hit my target whilst minimising the risk of losing. I look like a genius if i pull it off and everything goes to plan. If i bet my entire balance on a 1.01 shot that loses, then i look like a complete idiot :mrgreen:

Still, fortune favours the brave and i’m determined to crush Enda this month and lay down a marker for 2010.

pure luck

December 9th, 2009

Sticking to my new tactical approach, i tried placing several bets at 1.02, 1.03 today on snooker. I was just too slow placing them though and missed them.

So i thought i’d be clever and then placed a big €30 bet at 1.01 on Ronnie O Sullivan to win the 4th frame in his match against Peter Ebdon. I didn’t realise that when i confirmed the bet, it would be accepted at current odds (of 1.61), not at my odds (which were 1.01).

I thought that if i placed a bet at 1.01, the bet would be accepted if the odds fell to 1.01. If they didn’t fall to that, i’d get my money back. But i quickly learned that’s not how betfair works!!! I hit ‘confirm’ and the bet was accepted at odds of 1.61 – so the bet was accepted before the frame had started!! Disaster!

I didn’t have the liquidity to back out of it (as i’d place €30 of my €31 balance on this bet) and so had to watch from behind my fingers as the frame developed. I’d started this post before i knew the outcome of the frame because i suspected i’d lose – it would be typical.

O Sullivan won the first 3 frames of the match and was cruising, but it would have been typical if he’d lost the 4th frame just when i’d placed a banker bet on him (by accident). At one stage, Ebdon was about 1.25 to win the frame and i thought i was screwed… but thanks to honest sportsmanship (Ebdon called foul as he hit a red when leaning despite the fact nobody seen it) O Sullivan eventually went on to win.

dec 8th bets

So it means i profited by a huge €18+ on that frame alone which of course i’ll take all the credit for :mrgreen: I can say that i had anticipated O Sullivan winning, so that’s why i backed him rather than Ebdon but really, it was pure luck and i’m just relieved not to have lost anything – my tactics had been working superbly up until then and for a while it looked like i’d just shot myself in the foot and undone all my hard work with one lapse of concentration.
So a valuable lesson learned folks – you can only back at the current odds and can’t schedule bets below them.

I went on to place a few more bets. Won some, lost some and end the day with a betfair balance of €49.77. I do have to share a few tips though… in the lower league matches that were in play tonight i was looking for surefire wins.

So i was looking at live scores and searching for any side that was 2 goals up approaching injury time. I found a few of them and surprisingly, i found two teams that were 2 goals to the good available to back at 1.01 going in to injury time.

It’s hard to call 1.01 ‘value’ but in my opinion, that’s fantastic value. The chances of a side scoring two goals in injury time to draw level are extremely slim. Statistically, a 1.01 shot means it happens 1 in 100 times but i’d guess it happens maybe 1 in 1000 times, if even that.

I look at it as immediate 1% interest. It’s the closest thing to a sure win you’ll get in gambling. Place 100 of them in a month and you’ve just doubled your balance (assuming you win!). The law of averages will eventually catch you out once in a while but provided you’re not betting blindly on 1.01 shots, you shouldn’t get stung too often. I also noticed several value 1.02, 1.03 bets too. All in play and it’s really a case of speed and timing.

I did venture away from my new tactics today, but that was only for a bit of fun – because i was still buzzing from my fluke win earlier in the day :smile: I could probably batten down the hatches now and do ‘an Enda’ but i’m determined to go the whole hog and hit my target of €86.44 this month. Whilst i’ve probably done enough to win, i’m eager to end 2009 in style and beat Enda by as much as possible :smile:

new tactics show promise

December 7th, 2009

New month, new tactics. So far this month, i pretty much banked on every single bet i’ve placed. High risk, very low reward. But i like to think i can tell the difference between a near certain result and a false result.

december bets

A false result would be Spurs beating Everton 2-0 at Everton. That’s what was happening tonight and had i stuck to my new tactics, i’d have got burned because Everton came back to draw 2-2. But i could see it coming.

In my mind there were a number of alarm bells ringing which stopped me from backing spurs;

  • Everton were at home – never bet against a home side if they have the quality to get back in to a match. It only takes a goal to get the home crowd gagging for more.
  • Spurs have a dodgy defence – they’re not traditionally a sound defensive side that you’d bank on.
  • Spurs do not have a ruthless streak – they can score goals but they can’t grind out results or cope with being favourites.

An hour or two later however i was banking on Benfica to win when they were 2-0 up at home. They went on to win 3-0. So why did i back them?

  • Winning mentality
  • Poor opposition with little threat
  • Home support

Now of course this is football and anything can happen, but if you take that attitude in to betting, you’ll never place a bet. Anyway, my new strategy is to bank on very short odds. 1.01, 1.02, 1.03 – whatever i think is good value.

I banked on Benfica to win to 1.01 when they were 2-0 up at half time. The odds suggested that winning was a formality and most people would agree. The odds also suggest that 1 time out of 100, Benfica would not win. Which is possible… a man sent off, a couple of injuries, a penalty… it can all happen. And that’s where i have to make the call – “will it happen today, right now?”. That’s what i’m thinking when i’m placing the bet. That’s what i was thinking when i didn’t back Spurs tonight….

If i place 100 banker bets at 1.01, the stats say that at least 1 of those 100 will fail. And that would leave my balance at €0.00. With my new tactics, i’m aiming to increase my balance by 5% per day.

betting tactics

It would mean i’d end the month with €86.44. It’s extremely high risk (one bet could wipe me out at any stage), but so far all my banker bets are working beautifully. I’ve even applied it to accumulator bets too.

Normally, i lose €5 every month with my 5 x €1 accumulator bets, but this month i’ve placed a €1 accumulator already and won 12c profit. Right now, my betfair balance is €28.82 which means i’m about 2 days ahead of my schedule.

paddypower bet

So this month will be interesting. It’s all about sticking to the plan and not getting cocky.

closing balance of nil

December 1st, 2009

I ended November 2009 with a balance of €0.00. At the weekend i placed 5 x €1 footie accumulator bets but none came in. Typical. I also blew my 25c betfair balance, but that was to be expected…

So yet again, we’ve both lost money last month. Enda claims his third successive victory which means it’s 3-1 to him in the head to head monthly battles.

I’ll be changing my tactics yet again this month though in a bid to pull things back..

self destruction again

November 24th, 2009

Tonight i decided to gamble my betfair bank (all €6+ of it). I’d built it up from just 20c but i needed to get back in to double figures to stand any real chance of winning this month.

So i bet big and layed liverpool for €10. I also layed stuttgart against rangers when they went 1-0 up.

sean loss

Liverpool hung on for a 1-0 victory (just about). And Stuttgart went on to grab a second, so both my bets didn’t come off and my balance is back down to 25c. So it’s looks like i’m out again.

A couple of days ago, i place a bet on Celtic beating Dundee Utd with about 20 minutes to go (it was 0-0). Celtic scored and i layed them immediately and it’s a good job i did as Dundee Utd scored 2 late goals to win. It left my balance pretty much untouched though.

I still have 5 accumulator bets to place on paddy power and i’ll leave them all until this weekend – just to keep Enda worried this month :smile:

mother of all comebacks?

November 11th, 2009

In the last 4 days, i won back everything i lost on the liverpool match and went past the €40 mark. I then gambled about €10 of it, lost it and placed a banker bet on John and Edward not being in the bottom two last week.

It was always my intention to do that as i believed they were one of the best supported acts. Anyway, they did end up in the bottom two so i lost my entire bank….

Bar 20c. My balance in betfair on Sunday evening was 20c. You might think 20c is nothing, but i’ve managed to turn it in to €4.20 :mrgreen:

John and Edward were about 1.1 to go when it was announced they were in the bottom two on the x factor. Last week i played a similar bet and layed against the favourite to go – i did the same this time around and layed John and Edward going with my entire 20c.

They ended up staying to my delighted which meant i profitted by €2. On Monday evening, i then placed that €2 on the liverpool / birmingham match finishing 2-2. I got odds of 2-1 with 10 minutes to go and it was 2-2 at the time, so i thought it was decent value.

The match did indeed finish 2-2 so my balance is now €4.17. A remarkably comeback from just 20c and if i can go on to get back in to profit (above €20), it’ll be the ultimate great escape…

Anyway, check out the bets i placed and lost / won over the past few days…

sean comeback 2

sean comeback 1

I had placed €4 in to betfair games before the liverpool match so that’s why my account starts off as €13.40 – really it was €17.40. I then transferred the €4 back in to my account and you can see that in the first image…

Anyway, the mother of all comebacks is now on the cards…